Turkey Hatchery - Release

Turkey Hatchery
ISSN: 1949-1964

Released March 15, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Eggs in Incubators on March 1 Down Slightly from Last Year
Turkey eggs in incubators on March 1, 2012, in the United States totaled 28.3 million, down slightly from March 1, 2011.
Eggs in incubators were up 1 percent from the February 1, 2012 total of 28.0 million eggs.

Poults Hatched During February Down 1 Percent from Last Year
Turkey poults hatched during February 2012, in the United States totaled 22.9 million, down 1 percent from
February 2011. Poults hatched were down 6 percent from the January 2012 total of 24.5 million poults.

Net Poults Placed During February Up 1 Percent from Last Year
The 22.3 million net poults placed during February 2012 in the United States were up 1 percent from the number placed
during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 6 percent from the January 2012 total of 23.6 million.

Net Poult Placements – United States
Million poults
25
24
23
22
21
2011

2012

20
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month – United States: 2010-2012
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Month

September ..............................
October ...................................
November ...............................
December ...............................
January ...................................
February .................................
March ......................................
April ........................................
May .........................................
June ........................................
July .........................................
August ....................................

Eggs in incubators
first of month
2010-2011

2011-2012

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 eggs)

(1,000 eggs)

(percent)

26,353
26,223
28,415
27,327
27,764
28,431
28,359
27,720
27,754
28,215
29,178
28,427

28,072
27,170
27,502
28,741
28,308
28,044
28,314

Poults hatched
entire month
2010-2011

2011-2012

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

107
104
97
105
102
99
100

22,065
22,085
23,783
23,519
23,973
23,079
24,340
23,735
24,082
23,812
24,766
23,887

23,157
22,423
22,734
24,698
24,463
22,892

105
102
96
105
102
99

Net Poult Placements by Month – United States: 2010-2012
[Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Total all
breeds
2010-2011

2011-2012

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

Month

September ..............................
October ...................................
November ...............................
December ...............................
January ...................................
February .................................
March ......................................
April ........................................
May .........................................
June ........................................
July .........................................
August ....................................

2

21,672
21,094
22,599
22,596
22,585
22,130
23,720
23,378
23,893
23,810
24,872
23,946

22,320
21,407
22,090
23,779
23,636
22,268

103
101
98
105
105
101

Cumulative
total
2010-2011

2011-2012

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

21,672
42,766
65,365
87,961
110,546
132,676
156,396
179,774
203,667
227,477
252,349
276,295

22,320
43,727
65,817
89,596
113,232
135,500

103
102
101
102
102
102

Turkey Hatchery (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS
field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists.
Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults
annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via
mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to
ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.
Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data
are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends
from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS
field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State
estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of
hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.
Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey
Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available
for slaughter during the calendar year.
States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are
published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production Annual Summary report in April.
Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no
sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict
quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected
items in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past performance and is
computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for turkey eggs in
incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 28.3 million eggs by more than 1.4 percent. Chances
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.5 percent.

Reliability of March Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Years
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)

Eggs in incubators ......................................

1.4

2.5

289

5

963

15

9

Poults hatched ............................................

0.7

1.2

99

0

672

15

7

Net poult placements ..................................

1.5

2.6

246

7

1,165

14

10

Turkey Hatchery (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................................................................... (202) 720-4447
Cody Brokmeyer – Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ............................................... (202) 690-3237
David Colwell – Cold Storage .................................................................................................................. (202) 720-8784
LaKeya Jones – Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture,
Honey, Egg Products, Mink ........................................................................................... (202) 720-0585
Kim Linonis – Layers, Eggs ..................................................................................................................... (202) 690-8632
Miste Salmon – Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery .............................................................................. (202) 720-3244

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