2021-22 California Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Report

2021-22 California Valencia Orange
Objective Measurement Report
California Department of Food and Agriculture
Cooperating with the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Pacific Regional Office - California
Pacific Regional Office · P.O. Box 1258 · Sacramento, CA 95812 · (916) 738-6600 · (855) 270-2727 Fax ·

www.nass.usda.gov/ca

Released: March 9, 2022
VALENCIA ORANGE PRODUCTION
FORECAST AT 17.2 MILLION CARTONS
The March 2021-22 Valencia orange forecast is 17.2 million
cartons. This forecast was based on the results of the 2021-22
Valencia Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which
was conducted from January 11 to February 28, 2022.
Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre,
bearing acreage, and oranges per carton were used in the
statistical models estimating production.
The season had experienced scattered precipitation in some
areas but mainly warm and dry conditions in January and
February. Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of
541, a 0.7% decrease from the previous year and slightly above
the five-year average. The average March 1 diameter was 2.459
inches, down 3.6% from the previous year and slightly below the
five-year average of 2.539.

SURVEY SAMPLE
A sample of 381 Valencia orange groves were randomly
selected proportional to acreage, county, and variety
representation in the state, with 349 of these groves being
utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and
grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly
selected for each grove. For each randomly selected tree, its
trunk was measured along with all connected branches. A
random number table was then used to select a branch, and
then all connected branches from the randomly-selected branch
were measured.

SURVEY HISTORY
A Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey was
conducted from the 1985-86 to 1993-94 seasons before
suspension due to a lack of funding. The survey has been
conducted since it was reinstated for the 1999-00 season, with
the exception of the 2006-07 season due to a substantial freeze.
The data from the first three years after the survey was
reinstated were used for research purposes in developing cropestimating models.

This process was repeated until a branch was reached with no
significant limbs beyond it. This randomly-selected branch,
called the terminal branch, was then closely inspected to count
all fruit connected to it, as well as all of the fruit along the path
from the trunk to the terminal branch. Since each selected path
has a probability of selection associated with it, a probabilitybased method was then applied to estimate a fruit count for the
entire tree.
In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter
measurements were collected on the right quadrant of four trees
surrounding the two trees of every third sampled grove. These
measurements were used to estimate an average fruit diameter
per tree. The sampled groves were primarily in the top Valencia
orange producing counties of Tulare, Kern, Fresno, Ventura,
and San Diego.

Crop year
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21 2/
2021-22

1/
2/

Number of
sampled
groves
534
533
526
500
539
531
498
524
349
346
334
349

CALIFORNIA VALENCIA ORANGE STATEWIDE DATA
Forecast
Final utilized
Average
utilized
Bearing
production
trees per
production
acres
(Cartons) 1/
acre
(Cartons) 1/
29,000,000
25,000,000
24,000,000
21,600,000
18,400,000
22,600,000
18,000,000
16,600,000
20,400,000
21,600,000
19,000,000
---

26,000,000
28,000,000
25,000,000
24,000,000
20,000,000
21,000,000
15,600,000
19,000,000
19,000,000
17,000,000
20,000,000
17,200,000

41,000
40,000
39,000
36,000
34,000
32,000
30,000
29,000
29,000
28,000
26,000
26,000

124
124
125
124
123
123
124
124
124
124
124
124

Cartons have a standard equivalent weight of 40 lbs.
Final production is subject to revision in the Crop Production report released on April 8, 2022.

California Agricultural Statistics publications are
available free-of-charge on the Internet at:

www.nass.usda.gov/ca

Average set
per tree

Average
March 1
diameter
(Inches)

631
611
632
616
545
696
461
524
573
560
545
541

2.546
2.583
2.484
2.570
2.571
2.502
2.552
2.585
2.534
2.471
2.552
2.459