2022-23 California Navel Orange Objective Measurement Report

2022-23 California Navel Orange
Objective Measurement Report
California Department of Food and Agriculture
Cooperating with the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Pacific Regional Office · P.O. Box 1258 · Sacramento, CA 95812 · (916) 738-6600 · (855) 270-2722 Fax · www.nass.usda.gov/ca
Released: September 12, 2022, 9:00 am PDT Revised: September 13, 2022
The “Cara Cara Variety Navel Production” Total was corrected to cartons instead in boxes.
NAVEL ORANGE PRODUCTION FORECAST
The initial 2022-23 California Navel orange forecast is 76.0 million cartons,
up 19% from the previous year. Of the total Navel orange forecast, 73.0
million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Cara Cara
variety Navel orange production in the Central Valley is forecast at 8.0
million cartons. These forecasts are based on the results of the 202223 Navel Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was
conducted from June 1 7 to September 1, 2022. Estimated fruit set per
tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per
box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
This forecast includes production of conventional, organic, and specialty
Navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties).
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 351, up 47% from the
previous year and w e l l a b o v e the five-year average of 315. The
average September 1 diameter was 2.106 inches, below the five-year
average of 2.194 inches. The Cara Cara orange set was 307 with a
diameter of 2.147 inches.
CALIFORNIA NAVEL ORANGE

SURVEY SAMPLE

AVERAGE SET PER TREE BY COUNTY
Year

Fresno

Tulare

Kern

Central
Valley 1

2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23

303
311
449
296
172
375
214
289
209
245

253
308
387
380
266
425
339
332
233
382

261
396
460
472
368
483
346
298
274
350

265
333
412
384
273
426
319
319
239
351

1 Includes Madera, Fresno, Tulare, Kings, and Kern counties.

A sample of 785 Navel orange groves was randomly selected
proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, and 717 of the
groves were utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen
and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected.
The Navel orange sample included conventional, organic, Cara Cara,
and Blood orange groves.
For each randomly selected tree, the trunk was measured along with all
connected branches. A random number table was then used to select a
branch, and then all connected branches from the randomly-selected
branch were measured.
This process was repeated until a branch was reached with no
significant limbs beyond this point. This randomly-selected branch,
called the terminal branch, was then closely inspected to count all fruit
connected to this branch, as well as all of the fruit along the path from the
trunk to the terminal branch. Since each selected path has a probability
of selection associated with t h e p a t h , a probability-based method
was then applied to estimate a fruit count for the entire tree.
In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter measurements were
made on the right quadrant of four trees surrounding the two trees of
every third grove. These measurements were used to estimate an
average fruit diameter per tree. Of the 717 utilized groves, 8 were in
Madera County, 109 were in Fresno County, 425 were in Tulare County,
and 174 were in Kern County.
SURVEY HISTORY
A Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey has been conducted in
the Central Valley every year since the 1984-85 crop year, except for
the 1991-92 season due to a lack of funding. The data from the first two
years were used for research purposes in developing crop-estimating
models. The Cara Cara forecast was undertaken at the request of the
California Citrus Advisory Committee.

CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY NAVEL ORANGE DATA
Crop year

1

2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23 4

Number of
sampled
groves

498
526
569
539
543
527
533
519
535
539
542
534
520
537
540
703
737
733
707
717

Final utilized
production
(Cartons) 2

77,000,000
86,000,000
92,000,000
67,000,000
88,000,000
67,000,000
82,000,000
93,000,000
88,000,000
82,000,000
74,400,000
75,000,000
91,400,000
75,600,000
75,600,000
69,800,000
81,000,000
83,600,000
79,600,000
60,600,000

Forecast utilized
production
(Cartons) 2

76,000,000
90,000,000
82,000,000
64,000,000
84,000,000
62,000,000
78,000,000
90,000,000
85,000,000
90,000,000
85,000,000
78,000,000
83,000,000
81,000,000
68,000,000
77,000,000
73,000,000
81,000,000
67,000,000
73,000,000

Bearing
acres

Average
trees per acre

Average
set per tree

Average
September 1
diameter 3
(Inches)

129,000
131,000
133,000
135,000
135,000
135,000
134,500
133,500
132,000
127,000
125,000
124,000
120,000
117,000
113,000
113,000
112,000
110,000
109,000
108,000

124
125
127
129
130
131
132
133
133
134
134
134
135
135
135
135
137
138
137
138

358
392
461
294
390
202
294
418
318
344
265
333
412
384
273
426
319
319
239
351

2.410
2.495
2.230
2.268
2.245
2.276
2.336
2.143
2.270
2.195
2.338
2.205
2.248
2.213
2.341
2.117
2.169
2.198
2.143
2.106

1

Data for 2006-07 (freeze year) was not used in forecasting the 2022-23 crop.

2

Prior to the 2010-11 season, cartons had a standard equivalent weight of 37.5 lbs. Beginning in the 2010-11 season, cartons have a standard equivalent
weight of 40 lbs.

3

Size data before the 2006-07 season are from the orange industry. Size data beginning 2007-08 are from the USDA-NASS, Pacific Regional Office
objective measurement survey.

4

USDA, NASS, Pacific Regional Office preliminary forecast for 2022-23.

California agricultural statistics publications are
available free-of-charge on the Internet at:
www.nass.usda.gov/ca

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2022-23 California Navel Orange Objective Measurement Report (September 12, 2022)