2022 California Almond Objective Measurement Report

United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service

2022 California Almond
Objective Measurement Report
Pacific Regional Office · P.O. Box 1258 · Sacramento, CA 95812 · (916) 738-6600 · www.nass.usda.gov/ca

Released: July 8, 2022 - 12:00 p.m. PDT
2022 CALIFORNIA ALMOND FORECAST DOWN 11 PERCENT

FIELD SAMPLING ACTIVITIES

California's 2022 almond production is forecast at 2.60 billion meat
pounds, down 7% from May's subjective forecast and 11% lower than
last year's crop of 2.92 billion meat pounds. The forecast is based on
1.37 million bearing acres. Production for the Nonpareil variety is
forecast at 1.00 billion meat pounds, 12% percent below last year’s
deliveries of 1.13 billion meat pounds. The Nonpareil variety represents
38% of California’s total almond production.

The survey began May 26 and sampling was completed by June 27.
There were 1,760 trees sampled for the 2022 survey in 880 orchards.
Additional orchards were not sampled for one of the following reasons:

The almond bloom began in early February with favorable weather for
pollination. Warm temperatures encouraged a shorter bloom period than
has occurred in recent years. Some areas were hit by a freeze that
occurred during the last week in February. Frost damage was observed,
with reports that some acres would be left unharvested without an
adequate nut set. As drought conditions persist, water availability is a
top concern for almond growers. Harvest is expected to begin in the next
month.
The average nut set per tree is 4,082, a decrease of 12% compared to
2021. The Nonpareil average nut set of 3,966 is also 12% lower than
last year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.47
grams, up less than 1% from the 2021 average weight. The Nonpareil
average kernel weight was 1.55 grams, up slightly from last year. A total
of 98.7% of all nuts sized were sound.

1) Orchard had been sprayed.
2) Orchard had been recently irrigated and was wet.
3) Orchard had been pulled.
4) Grower would not grant permission or could not be contacted.
The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the Almond Board of
California.
DATA RELIABILITY
The 80 percent confidence interval is from 2,280 million meat pounds to
2,920 million meat pounds. This means that the results of our sampling
procedures will encompass the true mean 80 percent of the time.
TABLE 1: OBJECTIVE MEASUREMENT SURVEY COUNTS;
COMPARISON OF NUT ESTIMATES AND ORCHARDS SAMPLED
BY COUNTY AND VARIETY, 2021-2022
2021
2022
County and Variety
Nuts per
Orchards
Nuts per
Orchards
tree

SAMPLING PROCEDURES
To determine tree set, nuts are counted along a path within a randomly
selected tree. Work begins at the trunk and progresses to the end of the
terminal branch. Using a random number table, one branch is selected
at each forking to continue the path. A branch's probability of selection
is directly proportional to its cross-sectional area. This methodology is
used because of its statistical efficiency. The method also makes it
possible to end up at any one of the tree’s numerous terminal branches.
Since the selected path has a probability of selection associated with it,
this probability is used to expand nut counts and arrive at an estimated
set for the entire tree.
Along intermediate stages (i.e., the bearing surface between forkings),
every fifth nut is picked. All nuts on the terminal branch are picked.
These nuts are used to determine size and weight measurements.

STATE LEVEL
BY COUNTY
Colusa
Fresno
Kern
Madera
Merced
San Joaquin
Stanislaus
Tulare
Other 1
BY VARIETY
Butte
Carmel
Independence
Monterey
Nonpareil
Padre
Other 2

sampled

tree

sampled

4,619

914

4,082

880

3,219
4,252
3,957
4,082
6,455
4,700
4,774
5,025
4,476

44
152
160
102
134
48
143
44
87

2,631
3,929
4,099
2,614
6,780
3,954
3,369
5,297
3,344

44
181
134
97
128
44
147
38
67

4,793
5,469
4,389
4,324
4,512
5,214
4,899

81
37
92
166
368
51
119

4,173
4,417
4,624
3,908
3,966
4,928
3,763

66
38
89
177
347
48
115

1

Other includes: Butte, Glenn, Kings, Solano, Tehama, and Yolo.

2

Other includes: Aldrich, Bennett, Fritz, Mission, Price Cluster,
Shasta, Sonora, Supareil, Winters, and Wood Colony.

USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.

TABLE 2: WEIGHT, SIZE AND GRADE OF AVERAGE ALMOND SAMPLE, 2021-2022
District and
variety
STATE LEVEL
2021
2022
BY COUNTY
Colusa
2021
2022
Fresno
2021
2022
Kern
2021
2022
Madera
2021
2022
Merced
2021
2022
San Joaquin
2021
2022
Stanislaus
2021
2022
Tulare
2021
2022
Other 3
2021
2022
BY VARIETY
Butte
2021
2022
Carmel
2021
2022
Independence
2021
2022
Monterey
2021
2022
Nonpareil
2021
2022
Padre
2021
2022
Other 4
2021
2022
1

Kernel
weight
(grams)

Grade (percent of nuts) 1

Kernel size (millimeters)
Length

Width

Edible nuts

Thickness

Singles

Doubles

Insect
damage

1.46
1.47

22.33
22.12

12.73
12.69

9.68
10.03

94.6
94.2

4.7
4.5

2

1.37
1.48

21.59
21.93

12.97
13.03

9.19
9.85

95.8
94.0

2.6
2.9

2

1.40
1.43

21.78
22.08

12.64
12.75

9.61
10.04

94.0
95.0

5.1
3.3

2

1.37
1.31

21.59
21.05

12.38
12.06

9.75
9.77

93.2
93.8

6.0
4.4

2

1.49
1.47

22.75
22.01

12.74
12.77

9.66
10.18

92.2
92.4

5.8
6.1

2

1.45
1.46

21.88
21.98

12.57
12.47

9.46
10.13

95.0
93.7

4.9
6.2

2

1.62
1.63

23.46
22.82

13.38
13.12

10.35
10.19

97.7
97.7

1.8
1.8

2

1.56
1.56

23.42
22.44

12.81
12.87

10.25
10.24

94.8
94.0

4.0
4.5

2

1.46
1.57

22.94
23.37

12.81
13.16

9.53
9.95

94.3
92.8

5.2
5.6

2

1.45
1.58

22.61
22.97

13.22
13.55

9.17
9.66

96.1
95.8

3.2
1.9

1.20
1.13

19.11
18.20

11.92
11.79

9.84
9.92

90.9
95.8

8.1
2.8

2

1.41
1.47

22.29
22.17

11.89
12.20

9.71
10.16

94.8
88.4

4.6
9.9

2

1.71
1.68

24.39
24.00

13.68
13.47

9.86
10.17

97.3
97.5

1.8
1.0

2

1.58
1.55

24.44
23.74

12.61
12.30

9.76
10.18

90.2
88.6

9.2
10.3

2

1.51
1.55

22.69
22.61

13.29
13.33

9.58
9.99

96.6
95.9

2.8
3.0

2

1.15
1.10

18.51
18.28

11.47
11.51

9.56
9.90

94.3
96.9

4.4
2.0

2

1.37
1.33

21.79
21.02

12.41
12.04

9.75
9.85

94.5
94.4

4.9
3.8

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

0.1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Shrivel

Natural
gum

Blank

Other

2

2

2

0.1

2

0.1

0.4
0.1

0.7
1.0

1.2
2.8

2

2

0.3

2

0.9
1.1

0.1
0.1

2

2

0.2

0.3

0.7
1.6

2

2

2

2

2

0.2

1.9
0.8

0.1
0.4

2

2

2

0.4

0.1
0.1

0.1

2

2

2

2

2

0.4
0.5

0.1
0.1

2

2

2

2

1.1
1.0

0.1
0.6

2

2

2

2

0.5
1.2

0.1

2

2

2

2

0.3
0.1
0.1

0.6
2.0

2

2

0.1

2

0.9
1.1

0.1
0.1

2

2

2

0.2

0.6
1.6

2

2

2

0.1

2

2

0.7
1.0

0.1
0.1

2

2

2

0.4

0.5
0.7

0.1
0.1

2

2

0.1

0.3

0.7
1.0

2

2

2

0.1

2

2

1.3
0.9

2

2

2

2

2

0.2

0.5
1.1

2

2

0.4

0.2

0.1
0.1

Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
For years 2021 and prior, not shown if less than 0.07 percent. For 2022 going forward, not shown if less than 0.05 percent.
3
Other includes: Butte, Glenn, Kings, Solano, Tehama, and Yolo counties.
4
Other includes: Aldrich, Bennett, Fritz, Mission, Price Cluster, Shasta, Sonora, Supareil, Winters, and Wood Colony.
2

Page 2 of 5

2022 California Almond Objective Measurement Report (July 8, 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Pacific Region

ALMONDS NUT SET BY VARIETY
INDEPENDENCE TYPE
Nuts per Tree

NONPAREIL TYPE
Nuts per Tree
8,000

8,000
6,000

5,621
4,924

6,000

4,512

4,429

4,762

3,966

4,000

4,000

2,000

2,000

0

3,718

3,948

2019

2020

4,624

2021

2022

0
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2018

MONTEREY TYPE
Nuts per Tree

BUTTE TYPE
Nuts per Tree
8,000

8,000

5,989
6,000

4,389

5,362
4,426

4,719

4,324

5,923
5,261

6,000

4,793

3,908

4,000

4,000

2,000

2,000

0

4,173

0
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

ALMO NDS
NUTS P E R TRE E , BY CO UNTY & S TATE
Madera

Merced

San Joaquin

Stanislaus

2021
Page 3 of 5

State

4,082

5,297
3,369

2,614

3,954

4,099

3,929

4,619

5,025

4,774

4,700

4,082

3,957

4,252

Tulare

6,780

Kern

6,455

Fresno

2022
2022 California Almond Objective Measurement Report (July 8, 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Pacific Region

TABLE 3: CALIFORNIA ALMOND ACREAGE, PRODUCTION AND TREES PER ACRE, 1991-2022
Trees per
acre

Total Meat Production
Million lbs.
Lbs. per acre

Price per lb.
dollars

Value of production
1,000 dollars

Year

Bearing acres 1

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

405,000
401,000
413,000
433,000
418,000

89.6
90.5
92.0
92.6
93.7

222,000
249,000
222,000
333,000
168,000

490
548
490
735
370

1,210
1,370
1,190
1,700
885

1.19
1.30
1.94
1.34
2.48

564,179
691,340
930,618
965,202
880,896

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

428,000
442,000
460,000
485,000
510,000

94.4
95.5
96.3
97.3
99.0

231,000
344,000
236,000
378,000
319,000

510
759
520
833
703

1,190
1,720
1,130
1,720
1,380

2.08
1.56
1.41
0.86
0.97

1,018,368
1,160,640
703,590
687,742
666,487

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

530,000
545,000
550,000
570,000
590,000

101.0
101.0
103.0
103.0
104.0

376,000
494,000
472,000
456,000
415,000

830
1,090
1,040
1,005
915

1,570
2,000
1,890
1,760
1,550

0.91
1.11
1.57
2.21
2.81

740,012
1,200,687
1,600,144
2,189,005
2,525,909

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

610,000
640,000
710,000
750,000
770,000

105.0
105.0
107.0
108.0
108.0

508,000
630,000
739,000
640,000
744,000

1,120
1,390
1,630
1,410
1,640

1,840
2,170
2,300
1,880
2,130

2.06
1.75
1.45
1.65
1.79

2,258,790
2,401,875
2,343,200
2,293,500
2,903,380

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

800,000
820,000
880,000
930,000
950,000

111.0
112.0
112.0
114.0
114.0

921,000
857,000
912,000
848,000
862,000

2,030
1,890
2,010
1,870
1,900

2,540
2,300
2,280
2,010
2,000

1.99
2.58
3.21
4.00
3.13

4,007,860
4,816,860
6,384,690
7,388,000
5,868,750

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

970,000
1,030,000
1,090,000
1,180,000
1,250,000

116.0
117.0
119.0
122.0
122.0

971,000
1,030,000
1,034,000
1,161,000
1,413,000

2,140
2,270
2,280
2,560
3,115

2,210
2,200
2,090
2,170
2,490

2.39
2.53
2.50
2.45
1.71

5,052,460
5,603,950
5,602,500
6,169,100
5,251,410

2021
2022 3 4

1,320,000
1,370,000

122.0
122.5

1,322,000
1,179,000

2,915
2,600

2,210
1,900

1.76
─

5,028,320
─

Metric Tons 2

1

Bearing acreage is defined as plantings four years and older.
Rounded to nearest thousand, metric ton = 2,204.62 pounds.
3
Price and value will be available in the annual Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts publication, released in May 2023.
4
Preliminary estimate of bearing acres is based on the Almond Acreage Report and the Almond Nursery Sales Survey.
2

Page 4 of 5

2022 California Almond Objective Measurement Report (July 8, 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Pacific Region

2022 ALMOND OM SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION

TABLE 4: 2022 ALMOND OM SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY COUNTY AND VARIETY
Butte

Carmel

Independence

Monterey

Nonpareil

Other1

Padre

Total

Butte

0

0

0

1

16

0

0

Colusa

6

2

0

6

22

1

7

44

Fresno

14

1

25

42

56

11

32

181

Glenn

2

0

0

0

16

0

0

18

Kern

9

1

5

40

53

8

18

134

Kings

1

0

4

5

5

1

0

16

Madera

8

2

5

28

34

7

13

97

Merced

9

10

15

24

45

11

14

128

San Joaquin

4

1

9

0

27

0

3

44

Solano

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

2

12

21

19

17

44

9

25

147

Tehama

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

Tulare

1

0

6

13

17

0

1

38

Yolo

0

0

1

1

9

0

2

13

Total
66
38
89
177
347
48
1
Other includes Aldrich, Bennett, Fritz, Mission, Price Cluster, Shasta, Sonora, Supareil, Winters, and Wood Colony.

115

880

Stanislaus

Page 5 of 5

17

2022 California Almond Objective Measurement Report (July 8, 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Pacific Region