Crop Production - Monthly Report

Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737

Released February 9, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department
of Agriculture (USDA).

Special Note
Temperatures fell below freezing in Florida January 28-January 30. The full impact on the citrus crops in
Florida may not be fully reflected in this report. The March Crop Production report will include the next
update on citrus crops.

Orange Production Down 1 Percent from January Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2021-2022 season is 3.88 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous
forecast and down 12 percent from the 2020-2021 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 43.5 million boxes
(1.96 million tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 18 percent from last season’s final utilization.
In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 17.5 million boxes (788,000 tons), unchanged from the
previous forecast but down 23 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at
26.0 million boxes (1.17 million tons), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 14 percent from last
season’s final utilization. The California and Texas orange production forecasts were carried froward from the previous
forecast.

This report was approved on February 9, 2022.

Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Seth Meyer

2

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Joseph L. Parsons

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2020-2021 and Forecasted
February 1, 2022 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2020 and 2021 ................................ 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2021 and 2022 ..................... 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2021 and 2022 ......................... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2021 and 2022 .................................................................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2021 and 2022 ....................................................................... 11
January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ...................................................................................................................... 12
January Departure from Normal Temperature Map.............................................................................................................. 12
January Weather Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 13
January Agricultural Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 13
Crop Comments .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 15
Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2020-2021 and
Forecasted February 1, 2022
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]
Utilized production boxes 1

Crop and State

Utilized production ton equivalent

2020-2021

2021-2022

2020-2021

2021-2022

(1,000 boxes)

(1,000 boxes)

(1,000 tons)

(1,000 tons)

Oranges
California, all 2 .........................................
Early, mid, and Navel 3 ..........................
Valencia ................................................

50,100
40,600
9,500

47,600
39,000
8,600

2,004
1,624
380

1,904
1,560
344

Florida, all ...............................................
Early, mid, and Navel 3 ..........................
Valencia ................................................

52,800
22,700
30,100

43,500
17,500
26,000

2,377
1,022
1,355

1,958
788
1,170

Texas, all 2 ..............................................
Early, mid, and Navel 3 ..........................
Valencia ................................................

1,050
1,000
50

400
300
100

45
43
2

17
13
4

United States, all .....................................
Early, mid, and Navel 3 ..........................
Valencia ................................................

103,950
64,300
39,650

91,500
56,800
34,700

4,426
2,689
1,737

3,879
2,361
1,518

Grapefruit
California 2 ..............................................
Florida, all ...............................................
Texas 2 ....................................................

3,900
4,100
2,400

3,500
4,100
1,600

156
174
96

140
174
64

United States ..........................................

10,400

9,200

426

378

Tangerines and mandarins
California 2 ..............................................
Florida .....................................................

28,100
890

21,000
800

1,124
42

840
38

United States ..........................................

28,990

21,800

1,166

878

Lemons 2
Arizona ...................................................
California ................................................

800
21,300

1,400
23,000

32
852

56
920

United States ..........................................

22,100

24,400

884

976

4

1

Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in
California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2
Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
3
Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas.
4
Includes tangelos and tangors.

4

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2020 and 2021
Use and State

Yield per acre 1

Area harvested

Production 1

2020

2021

2020

2021

2020

2021

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(tons)

(tons)

(1,000 tons)

(1,000 tons)

For sugar
Florida .........................................................
Louisiana 2 ...................................................
Texas 2 ........................................................

409.0
461.0
33.4

388.0
464.0
34.2

44.3
32.9
31.5

43.4
29.5
31.6

18,119
15,167
1,052

16,839
13,688
1,081

United States ...............................................

903.4

886.2

38.0

35.7

34,338

31,608

For seed
Florida .........................................................
Louisiana 2 ...................................................
Texas 2 ........................................................

14.3
27.4
2.5

15.5
30.6
2.2

47.3
36.5
34.3

47.2
34.2
33.7

676
1,000
86

732
1,047
74

United States ...............................................

44.2

48.3

39.9

38.4

1,762

1,853

For sugar and seed
Florida .........................................................
Louisiana 2 ...................................................
Texas 2 ........................................................

423.3
488.4
35.9

403.5
494.6
36.4

44.4
33.1
31.7

43.5
29.8
31.7

18,795
16,167
1,138

17,571
14,735
1,155

United States ...............................................

947.6

934.5

38.1

35.8

36,100

33,461

1

Net tons.
2
Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate.

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States:
2021 and 2022
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Area planted

Area harvested

2021

2022

2021

2022

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

Grains and hay
Barley .....................................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ........................................................................
Corn for silage ........................................................................
Hay, all ....................................................................................
Alfalfa ..................................................................................
All other ...............................................................................
Oats ........................................................................................
Proso millet .............................................................................
Rice ........................................................................................
Rye .........................................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 .................................................................
Sorghum for silage ..................................................................
Wheat, all ................................................................................
Winter .................................................................................
Durum .................................................................................
Other spring ........................................................................

2,660
93,357
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2,550
725
2,532
2,133
7,305
(NA)
46,703
33,648
1,635
11,420

Oilseeds
Canola ....................................................................................
Cottonseed .............................................................................
Flaxseed .................................................................................
Mustard seed ..........................................................................
Peanuts ..................................................................................
Rapeseed ...............................................................................
Safflower .................................................................................
Soybeans for beans ................................................................
Sunflower ................................................................................

2,152.0
(X)
325
103.0
1,585.2
14.3
152.0
87,195
1,288.5

2,089.0
(X)
268
89.3
1,545.0
12.5
135.0
86,332
1,243.8

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all ...............................................................................
Upland ................................................................................
American Pima ....................................................................
Sugarbeets .............................................................................
Sugarcane ..............................................................................
Tobacco ..................................................................................

11,219.5
11,093.0
126.5
1,160.0
(NA)
(NA)

9,968.3
9,844.5
123.8
1,107.6
934.5
218.9

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ...............................................................................
Dry edible beans .....................................................................
Dry edible peas .......................................................................
Lentils .....................................................................................

368.5
1,394.0
977.0
708.0

351.0
1,335.6
834.0
549.0

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops .......................................................................................
Maple syrup ............................................................................
Mushrooms .............................................................................
Peppermint oil .........................................................................
Potatoes .................................................................................
Spearmint oil ...........................................................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
943.0
(NA)

60.9
(NA)
(NA)
44.0
935.7
14.9

See footnote(s) at end of table.

6

34,397

1,948
85,388
6,481
50,736
15,246
35,490
650
662
2,488
294
6,490
331
37,163
25,464
1,534
10,165

--continued

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States:
2021 and 2022 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Yield per acre
2021

Production
2022

2021

2022

(1,000)

(1,000)

Grains and hay
Barley ......................................................................... bushels
Corn for grain .............................................................. bushels
Corn for silage ..................................................................tons
Hay, all .............................................................................tons
Alfalfa ...........................................................................tons
All other ........................................................................tons
Oats ............................................................................ bushels
Proso millet ................................................................. bushels
Rice 2 ................................................................................. cwt
Rye ............................................................................. bushels
Sorghum for grain ....................................................... bushels
Sorghum for silage ............................................................tons
Wheat, all ................................................................... bushels
Winter ..................................................................... bushels
Durum ..................................................................... bushels
Other spring ............................................................ bushels

60.4
177.0
20.1
2.37
3.23
2.00
61.3
23.2
7,709
33.4
69.0
15.4
44.3
50.2
24.3
32.6

117,673
15,115,170
130,317
120,196
49,245
70,951
39,836
15,376
191,796
9,808
447,810
5,083
1,645,764
1,277,365
37,259
331,140

Oilseeds
Canola ......................................................................... pounds
Cottonseed .......................................................................tons
Flaxseed ..................................................................... bushels
Mustard seed ............................................................... pounds
Peanuts ....................................................................... pounds
Rapeseed .................................................................... pounds
Safflower ..................................................................... pounds
Soybeans for beans .................................................... bushels
Sunflower .................................................................... pounds

1,302
(X)
10.1
491
4,135
1,809
1,001
51.4
1,530

2,720,550
5,377.0
2,708
43,834
6,389,300
22,616
135,175
4,435,232
1,902,985

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 ..................................................................... bales
Upland 2 ...................................................................... bales
American Pima 2 ......................................................... bales
Sugarbeets .......................................................................tons
Sugarcane ........................................................................tons
Tobacco ....................................................................... pounds

849
841
1,423
33.2
35.8
2,183

17,624.0
17,257.0
367.0
36,751
33,461
477,973

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas 2 ....................................................................... cwt
Dry edible beans 2 ............................................................. cwt
Dry edible peas 2 ............................................................... cwt
Lentils 2 .............................................................................. cwt

815
1,701
1,025
606

2,861
22,721
8,549
3,327

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops ............................................................................ pounds
Maple syrup ................................................................. gallons
Mushrooms .................................................................. pounds
Peppermint oil .............................................................. pounds
Potatoes ............................................................................ cwt
Spearmint oil ............................................................... pounds

1,900
(NA)
(NA)
104
438
119

115,630.9
3,424
757,987
4,566
409,671
1,775

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Yield in pounds.

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

7

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States:
2021 and 2022
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Area planted

Area harvested

2021

2022

2021

2022

(hectares)

(hectares)

(hectares)

(hectares)

Grains and hay
Barley ........................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ...........................................................
Corn for silage ...........................................................
Hay, all 2 ....................................................................
Alfalfa .....................................................................
All other ..................................................................
Oats ...........................................................................
Proso millet ................................................................
Rice ...........................................................................
Rye ............................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 ....................................................
Sorghum for silage .....................................................
Wheat, all 2 ................................................................
Winter ....................................................................
Durum ....................................................................
Other spring ...........................................................

1,076,480
37,780,640
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,031,960
293,400
1,024,680
863,200
2,956,260
(NA)
18,900,240
13,617,010
661,670
4,621,560

Oilseeds
Canola .......................................................................
Cottonseed ................................................................
Flaxseed ....................................................................
Mustard seed .............................................................
Peanuts .....................................................................
Rapeseed ..................................................................
Safflower ....................................................................
Soybeans for beans ...................................................
Sunflower ...................................................................

870,890
(X)
131,520
41,680
641,510
5,790
61,510
35,286,940
521,440

845,400
(X)
108,460
36,140
625,250
5,060
54,630
34,937,700
503,350

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 ................................................................
Upland ...................................................................
American Pima .......................................................
Sugarbeets ................................................................
Sugarcane .................................................................
Tobacco .....................................................................

4,540,420
4,489,230
51,190
469,440
(NA)
(NA)

4,034,070
3,983,970
50,100
448,230
378,180
88,600

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ..................................................................
Dry edible beans ........................................................
Dry edible peas ..........................................................
Lentils ........................................................................

149,130
564,140
395,380
286,520

142,050
540,500
337,510
222,170

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops ..........................................................................
Maple syrup ...............................................................
Mushrooms ................................................................
Peppermint oil ............................................................
Potatoes ....................................................................
Spearmint oil ..............................................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
381,620
(NA)

24,630
(NA)
(NA)
17,810
378,670
6,030

See footnote(s) at end of table.

8

13,920,120

788,340
34,555,670
2,622,800
20,532,350
6,169,900
14,362,450
263,050
267,900
1,006,870
118,980
2,626,440
133,950
15,039,490
10,305,030
620,790
4,113,670

--continued

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States:
2021 and 2022 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Yield per hectare

Production

2021

2022

2021

2022

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

Grains and hay
Barley .....................................................................................
Corn for grain ..........................................................................
Corn for silage ........................................................................
Hay, all 2 .................................................................................
Alfalfa .................................................................................
All other ..............................................................................
Oats ........................................................................................
Proso millet .............................................................................
Rice ........................................................................................
Rye .........................................................................................
Sorghum for grain ...................................................................
Sorghum for silage ..................................................................
Wheat, all 2 .............................................................................
Winter .................................................................................
Durum .................................................................................
Other spring ........................................................................

3.25
11.11
45.07
5.31
7.24
4.48
2.20
1.30
8.64
2.09
4.33
34.42
2.98
3.37
1.63
2.19

2,562,030
383,943,000
118,221,590
109,039,980
44,674,310
64,365,660
578,220
348,720
8,699,720
249,130
11,374,900
4,611,220
44,790,360
34,764,180
1,014,020
9,012,150

Oilseeds
Canola ....................................................................................
Cottonseed .............................................................................
Flaxseed .................................................................................
Mustard seed ..........................................................................
Peanuts ..................................................................................
Rapeseed ...............................................................................
Safflower ................................................................................
Soybeans for beans ................................................................
Sunflower ...............................................................................

1.46
(X)
0.63
0.55
4.64
2.03
1.12
3.45
1.71

1,234,020
4,877,930
68,790
19,880
2,898,140
10,260
61,310
120,707,230
863,180

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 .............................................................................
Upland ................................................................................
American Pima ...................................................................
Sugarbeets .............................................................................
Sugarcane ..............................................................................
Tobacco ..................................................................................

0.95
0.94
1.59
74.38
80.27
2.45

3,837,170
3,757,270
79,900
33,339,950
30,355,310
216,800

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ...............................................................................
Dry edible beans .....................................................................
Dry edible peas .......................................................................
Lentils .....................................................................................

0.91
1.91
1.15
0.68

129,770
1,030,610
387,780
150,910

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops .......................................................................................
Maple syrup ............................................................................
Mushrooms .............................................................................
Peppermint oil .........................................................................
Potatoes .................................................................................
Spearmint oil ..........................................................................

2.13
(NA)
(NA)
0.12
49.07
0.13

52,450
17,120
343,820
2,070
18,582,370
810

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Total may not add due to rounding.

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

9

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2021 and 2022
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2021-2022 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Citrus 1
Grapefruit .............................................................................................. 1,000 tons
Lemons ................................................................................................. 1,000 tons
Oranges ................................................................................................ 1,000 tons
Tangerines and mandarins .................................................................... 1,000 tons
Noncitrus
Apples, commercial ......................................................................... million pounds
Apricots .......................................................................................................... tons
Avocados ....................................................................................................... tons
Blueberries, Cultivated ..................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) ................................................................. 1,000 pounds
Cherries, Sweet ............................................................................................. tons
Cherries, Tart .................................................................................. million pounds
Coffee (Hawaii) ................................................................................ 1,000 pounds
Cranberries .................................................................................................. barrel
Dates ............................................................................................................. tons
Grapes ........................................................................................................... tons
Kiwifruit (California) ........................................................................................ tons
Nectarines (California) ................................................................................... tons
Olives (California) .......................................................................................... tons
Papayas (Hawaii) ............................................................................. 1,000 pounds
Peaches ......................................................................................................... tons
Pears ............................................................................................................. tons
Plums (California) .......................................................................................... tons
Prunes (California) ......................................................................................... tons
Raspberries, all ............................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Strawberries ........................................................................................... 1,000 cwt
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ........................................................... 1,000 pounds
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ........................................................................... tons
Macadamias (Hawaii) ....................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Pecans, in-shell ................................................................................ 1,000 pounds
Pistachios (California) ...................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .......................................................................... tons
1

Production
2021

2022
426
884
4,426
1,166

378
976
3,879
878

10,525.0
55,500

369,000
142.0
27,120
7,900,000

6,470,000

696,500
670,000

2,800,000

258,000
670,000

Production years are 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.

10

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2021 and 2022
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2021-2022 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Citrus 1
Grapefruit .............................................................................................................
Lemons ................................................................................................................
Oranges ................................................................................................................
Tangerines and mandarins ...................................................................................
Noncitrus
Apples, commercial ..............................................................................................
Apricots ................................................................................................................
Avocados ..............................................................................................................
Blueberries, Cultivated ..........................................................................................
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) ......................................................................................
Cherries, Sweet ....................................................................................................
Cherries, Tart ........................................................................................................
Coffee (Hawaii) .....................................................................................................
Cranberries ...........................................................................................................
Dates ....................................................................................................................
Grapes .................................................................................................................
Kiwifruit (California) ...............................................................................................
Nectarines (California) ..........................................................................................
Olives (California) .................................................................................................
Papayas (Hawaii) .................................................................................................
Peaches ...............................................................................................................
Pears ....................................................................................................................
Plums (California) .................................................................................................
Prunes (California) ................................................................................................
Raspberries, all .....................................................................................................
Strawberries .........................................................................................................
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ................................................................................
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .................................................................................
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........................................................................................
Pecans, in-shell ....................................................................................................
Pistachios (California) ...........................................................................................
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .................................................................................
1

Production
2021

2022

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

386,460
801,950
4,015,200
1,057,780

342,920
885,410
3,518,970
796,510

4,774,060
50,350

334,750
64,410
12,300
358,340

5,869,490

631,850
607,810

1,270,060

117,030
607,810

Production years are 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

11

12

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

January Weather Summary
As 2021 ended, the water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack stood close to 15 inches, nearly 160 percent of the
late-December average, according to the California Department of Water Resources. Incredibly, less than an inch was
added during January to that snowpack, leaving the early-February water equivalency at 16 inches, about 90 percent of the
average for the date. Disappointingly low January precipitation totals were also reported across the remainder of
California and the Great Basin, as well as the Southwest. In contrast, wet weather persisted early in the month across the
Pacific Northwest, while periods of precipitation provided varying degrees of drought relief from the northern and central
Rockies to the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, Southwestern dryness extended across the southern half of the Plains, where intensifying drought adversely
affected rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. By January 23, more than one-quarter of the winter wheat was rated in
very poor to poor condition in several key production states, including Kansas (31 percent), Colorado (40 percent),
Oklahoma (43 percent), and Texas (71 percent). Drought impacts extended to the northern High Plains, where 65 percent
of Montana’s winter wheat was rated very poor to poor. On the same date, USDA/NASS rated topsoil moisture at least
40 percent very short to short in each of the ten states encompassing the Plains and the eastern slopes of the Rockies,
ranging from 41 percent in North Dakota to 87 percent in New Mexico.
Farther east, an overall cold but quiet Midwestern weather pattern was interrupted by a mid-January storm, which
delivered wind-driven snow, mainly west of the Mississippi River. In fact, parts of the upper Midwest were subjected to
sustained cold weather, interspersed with periods of gusty winds and light snow, leading to rural travel difficulties and
increased livestock stress. Monthly temperatures broadly averaged at least 5°F below normal from the Midwest to the
interior Northeast. Cold weather occasionally reached the Deep South, culminating in freezes across parts of Florida on
January 24 and 30. During the latter cold snap, Daytona Beach, Florida (31°F on January 30), experienced its first freeze
since January 19, 2018.
In contrast, generally mild weather prevailed from the Pacific Coast to the High Plains, although cooler air began to settle
across the Northwest late in the month. Parts of the Northwest also dealt with extended periods of air stagnation and foggy
conditions. On the other side of the Rockies, windy weather frequently raked the High Plains, keeping winter wheat’s
protective snow cover at a minimum. On the southern Plains, windy, dry weather led to several, mid-winter grassfires,
including the 1,700-acre Mill Creek Fire in Shackelford County, Texas, which was sparked on January 15. A rare winter
wildfire—the Colorado Fire—also burned along the central California coastline near Big Sur, torching nearly 700 acres of
vegetation, starting on January 21.
During the 5-week period ending February 1, drought coverage in the contiguous United States was nearly unchanged at
55 percent. According to the United States Drought Monitor, drought has covered more than 40 percent of the Lower
48 States for 71 consecutive weeks (September 29, 2020, to present), breaking the modern-day record of 68 weeks set
from June 19, 2012 – October 1, 2013. Drought remained especially pervasive across the western half of the Nation, with
88 percent of the 11-state Western region experiencing drought in early February.
Elsewhere, several rounds of wintry weather affected parts of the South and East, contributing to above-normal January
precipitation in some areas. The same storm system that delivered mid-month wind and snow across the upper Midwest
later produced significant snow and ice accumulations from the southern Appalachians into the Northeast. Late in the
month, a rapidly intensifying coastal storm resulted in blizzard conditions for the first time in more than 4 years along the
middle and northern Atlantic Coast.
January Agricultural Summary
January was cooler than normal for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Cooler than normal temperatures were also
recorded for most of the Southern Plains and large parts of the Pacific Northwest. Much of the Great Lakes, Idaho,
Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Northeast recorded temperatures 4°F or more below normal. In contrast, most of California
and large parts of the Northern Plains, Central Rockies, and Southwest were warmer than normal. Locations in Colorado,
Montana, and Utah recorded temperatures 6°F or more above normal. While most of the Nation remained drier than
normal during January, higher than normal amounts of precipitation were recorded in large parts of the Mid-Atlantic,
Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

13

Mississippi Valley, and Central Rockies. Parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as select locations in
Arizona, South Florida, South Texas, and Washington also recorded higher than normal amounts of precipitation.

Crop Comments
Grapefruit: The United States 2021-2022 grapefruit crop is forecast at 378,000 tons, unchanged from the previous
forecast but down 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 4.10 million boxes
(174,000 tons), is unchanged from previous forecast and unchanged from the last season. The California and Texas
grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 878,000 tons, unchanged from
the previous forecast but down 25 percent from the last season’s final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin
forecast, at 800,000 boxes (38,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from last year. The
California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast.
Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 33.5 million tons, up 1 percent from last month but
down 7 percent from 2020. Producers intend to harvest 934,500 acres for sugar and seed during the 2021 crop year,
down slightly from last month and down 1 percent from 2020. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average
35.8 tons per acre, up 0.6 ton from last month but down 2.9 tons from 2020. The Louisiana and Texas sugarcane forecast
were carried forward from the previous forecast.

14

Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August
and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous
components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower survey on a
quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September
for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used
for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month
throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including
information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization
and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square
Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production
forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage
deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean
Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing
recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 5.1 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final
estimates by more than 5.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not
exceed 8.8 percent.
Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the February 1
forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the February 1 forecast and the final
estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 287,000 tons, ranging from 18,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The February 1
forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. This does not imply that the February 1
orange forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]

Crop

Root mean
square error

(percent)
Oranges 1 ................................................ tons
Sugarcane .............................................. tons

(percent)
5.1
3.0

Difference between forecast
and final estimate

90 percent
confidence
interval

8.8
5.1

Production

Years

Average

Smallest

Largest

Below
final

(millions)

(millions)

(millions)

(number)

(number)

843
3

7
4

13
16

287
1

18
(Z)

Above
final

(Z) Less than half of the unit shown.
1
Quantity is in thousands of units.

Crop Production (February 2022)
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15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch ....................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section ......................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Irwin Anolik – Crop Weather........................................................................................................... (202) 720-7621
Joshua Bates – Oats, Soybeans ........................................................................................................ (202) 690-3234
David Colwell – Current Agricultural Industrial Reports ................................................................ (202) 720-8800
Michelle Harder – Barley, County Estimates, Hay .......................................................................... (202) 690-8533
James Johanson – Rye, Wheat ......................................................................................................... (202) 720-8068
Greg Lemmons – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet ............................................................................... (202) 720-9526
Becky Sommer – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum ..................................................................... (202) 720-5944
Travis Thorson – Sunflower, Other Oilseeds ................................................................................... (202) 720-7369
Lihan Wei – Peanuts, Rice ............................................................................................................... (202) 720-7688
Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................................................. (202) 720-2127
Fleming Gibson – Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes............................. (202) 720-2127
Deonne Holiday – Almonds, Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco ........................................................................................ (202) 720-4288
Robert Little – Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup,
Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes .................................................................. (202) 720-3250
Krishna Rizal – Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Hazelnuts,
Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges ................ (202) 720-5412
Antonio Torres – Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils,
Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons................................ (202) 720-2157
Chris Wallace – Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas,
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans ........................................................ (202) 720-4215

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Crop Production (February 2022)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:
➢ All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov
➢ Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free
subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on “National” or “State” in upper right corner above “search”
box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive.
➢ Cornell’s Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS’s and other agency’s archived reports. The
new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new
website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the
new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or
subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usdaesmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540,
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@usda.gov.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for
employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where
applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program
or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or
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If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination
Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or
at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the
information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax
(202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.

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