Press Releases

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Jun 2019.pdf

Monthly Retail Surveys

Press Releases

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Attachment 1

FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, TUESDAY, JULY 16, 2019

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, June 2019
Release Number: CB19-99
Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales estimates were revised on June 25, 2019 based on the results of the
2017 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the Service Annual Survey. The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and
Food Services showing revised estimates can be found on our website at
https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/benchmark/2019/html/annrev19.html.
July 16, 2019 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following advance estimates of U.S. retail and
food services sales for June 2019:
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales from
Previous Month

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES

Data adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for
price changes.

1.5
June 2019

$519.9 billion

0.4%*

May 2019
(revised)

$517.7 billion

0.4%

Next release: August 15, 2019
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient statistical
evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
Data adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but
not for price changes. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advanced Monthly Retail
Trade Survey, July 16, 2019.

0.5

-0.5
April
Total

May
Ex Auto

Auto

June
Gen Mer

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
July 16, 2019

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and
holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $519.9 billion, an increase of 0.4
percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 3.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above June 2018. Total
sales for the April 2019 through June 2019 period were up 3.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same
period a year ago. The April 2019 to May 2019 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent
(±0.5 percent)* to up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).
Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from May 2019, and 3.3 percent (±0.5 percent)
above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 13.4 percent (±1.4 percent) from June 2018, while health and
personal care stores were up 5.5 percent (±1.9 percent) from last year.

Data Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch
301-763-2713
eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov

Media Inquiries
Public Information Office
301-763-3030
pio@census.gov

Attachment 1

General Information
The July 2019 Advance Monthly Retail report is scheduled for release on August 15, 2019 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room: . The full
text and tables of this release can be found at .
EXPLANATORY NOTES
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services
sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,500 retail and food
services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of
over three million retail and food services firms.
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey to provide
an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the
United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,500
employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Advance sales estimates are
computed using a link relative estimator. For each detailed industry, we compute a ratio of current-toprevious month weighted sales using data from units for which we have obtained usable responses for
both the current and previous month. For each detailed industry, the advance total sales estimates for the
current month is computed by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous
month (derived from the larger MRTS) at the appropriate industry level. Total estimates for broader
industries are computed as the sum of the detailed industry estimates. The link relative estimate is used
because imputation is not performed for most nonrespondents in MARTS. For a limited number of
nonresponding companies that have influential effects on the estimates, sales may be estimated based on
historical performance of that company. The monthly estimates are benchmarked to the annual survey
estimates from the Annual Retail Trade Survey once available. The estimates are adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be
found on the Census Bureau website at: .
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error
and nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a
complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error
occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors
Data Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch
301-763-2713
eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov

Media Inquiries
Public Information Office
301-763-3030
pio@census.gov

Attachment 1

and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling
variation.
The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent
confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated
standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.753 x 0.9 percent or ±1.6 percent,
and the 90 percent confidence interval is –0.4 percent to +2.8 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one
does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is
different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in
the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated
coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.753 x CV x (the
estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report
incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from
the estimates.
Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey
estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of
retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response,
coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs
quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
RESOURCES
API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new
users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever
before.
FRED Mobile App
Receive the latest updates on the nation’s key economic indicators by downloading
the FRED App for both Apple and
Android devices. FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis, now incorporates the Census Bureau’s 13 economic indicators.
###
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

Data Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch
301-763-2713
eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov

Media Inquiries
Public Information Office
301-763-3030
pio@census.gov

Attachment 1

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
and administrative records.)
1

NAICS
code

6 Month Total
% Chg.
2019
2018

Kind of Business

Retail & food services,
total ……………………………….………..………..2,999,101
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) … 2,385,730
Total (excl. gasoline stations) ………………………….
2,749,702
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts &
gasoline stations) ……………………….
2,136,331
Retail …..…………………………….……….. 2,620,460
4
GAFO ………………………....……...……...…………..………..……….. (*)

Not Adjusted
2019
3
Jun.
May
(a)
(p)

Adjusted
2018
Apr.
(r)

Jun.

May

Jun.
(a)

2019
May
(p)

2018
Apr.
(r)

Jun.
(r)

May
(r)

2.9
3.0
3.1

519,429
412,910
474,868

547,255 510,176 510,029 530,082 519,885 517,682 515,545 502,688
434,225 405,978 405,277 421,168 415,385 413,932 412,466 402,306
500,000 466,049 464,191 483,790 477,846 474,448 471,984 459,929

502,987
402,514
460,517

3.3
2.7
(*)

368,349
453,155
(*)

386,970 361,851 359,439 374,876 373,346
479,282 446,483 445,793 465,377 455,353
111,042 102,747 106,233 110,704
(*)

370,698 368,905 359,547
453,738 452,232 440,624
109,297 109,078 108,792

360,044
441,597
110,037

113,030 104,198 104,752 108,914 104,500 103,750 103,079 100,382
104,553 96,015
96,794 100,776 96,526
95,745
95,064
92,715
85,861
78,463
79,222
82,916
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
8,477
8,183
7,958
8,138
(*)
8,005
8,015
7,667

100,473
92,796
(NA)
7,677

441
4411, 4412
44111
4413

Motor vehicle & parts dealers …….………..613,371
Auto & other motor veh. dealers .
566,151
New car dealers ……………….………..
(*)
Auto parts, acc. & tire stores…………….. (*)

2.4
2.3
(*)
(*)

106,519
98,457
(*)
(*)

442
4421
4422

Furniture & home furn. stores ……………..………..
55,556
Furniture stores …………………..………..………..
(*)
Home furnishings stores ………..……….. (*)

-0.8
(*)
(*)

9,545
(*)
(*)

9,984
5,562
4,422

9,271
5,077
4,194

9,713
5,454
4,259

9,910
5,427
4,483

9,840
(NA)
(NA)

9,788
(NA)
(NA)

9,800
(NA)
(NA)

9,762
(NA)
(NA)

9,773
(NA)
(NA)

443

Electronics & appliance stores …………….. 44,700

-4.6

7,587

7,626

6,956

8,052

7,942

8,123

8,147

8,079

8,548

8,531

444
4441

Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers…………………….………..………..
189,334
Building mat. & sup. dealers …………….. (*)

0.7
(*)

34,352
(*)

37,857
33,215

34,656
30,214

36,045
31,818

39,115
33,653

31,156
(*)

30,993
27,865

31,479
28,132

31,952
28,409

31,543
28,044

445
4451
4453

Food & beverage stores…………….……….. 378,736
Grocery stores …………………..………..………..
340,709
Beer, wine & liquor stores ……………….. (*)

2.5
2.7
(*)

64,577
57,792
(*)

66,923
59,950
5,110

62,737
56,301
4,582

63,240
56,409
4,995

64,958
58,116
4,955

64,662
57,850
(*)

64,340
57,589
4,923

64,248
57,450
4,927

62,820
56,128
4,826

62,867
56,151
4,848

446
44611

Health & personal care stores …….………..175,384
Pharmacies & drug stores ……………….. (*)

4.1
(*)

28,958
(*)

30,579
25,534

29,538
24,722

28,016
23,015

29,460
24,642

30,102
(*)

29,950
24,766

29,686
24,599

28,530
23,557

28,939
23,994

447

Gasoline stations ……………………………..………..
249,399

0.6

44,561

47,255

44,127

45,838

46,292

42,039

43,234

43,561

42,759

42,470

448

Clothing & clothing accessories
stores …………………………….…..………..………..
122,679

-0.1

21,235

23,210

21,597

21,589

23,764

22,486

22,378

22,413

22,692

23,048

Men's clothing stores ……………………..
(*)
Women's clothing stores ………..……….. (*)
Family clothing stores …………………….. (*)
Shoe stores ………………………………..……….. (*)

(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)

857
3,820
9,328
3,129

840
3,590
8,692
3,132

780
3,330
8,698
2,833

862
3,798
9,449
3,061

(*)
(*)
(NA)
(*)

760
3,470
(NA)
3,186

768
3,429
(NA)
3,212

777
3,408
(NA)
3,086

770
3,494
(NA)
3,120

44811
44812
44814
4482
451

Sporting goods, hobby, musical
instrument, & book stores ……………………..
35,390

452
4521
4529
45291
45299

General merchandise stores……….………..………..
337,432
Department stores ………………….………..61,398
Other general merch. stores…. ..……….. (*)
Warehouse clubs &
supercenters………………….………..………..(*)
All oth. gen. merch. stores…………….. (*)

453
454
4541
722

-6.7

6,292

6,276

6,043

6,642

6,625

6,507

6,504

6,512

6,729

6,966

2.0
-4.3
(*)

59,181
10,650
(*)

61,344
11,430
49,914

56,653
10,542
46,111

57,871
11,256
46,615

60,018
12,055
47,963

60,026
11,352
(*)

59,887
11,483
48,404

59,748
11,552
48,196

58,545
11,981
46,564

59,241
12,309
46,932

(*)
(*)

42,425
7,489

39,061
7,050

39,877
6,738

40,736
7,227

(*)
(*)

41,189
7,215

40,987
7,209

39,758
6,806

39,976
6,956

Miscellaneous store retailers ……..……….. 63,299

-0.1

11,466

12,550

10,718

11,286

12,297

11,196

11,128

11,040

10,847

10,954

Nonstore retailers …………………..………..………..
355,180
Elect. shopping & m/o houses ….……….. (*)

10.6
(*)

58,882
(*)

62,648
55,633

59,989
53,080

52,749
46,800

56,082
49,215

64,716
(*)

63,639
56,538

62,587
55,523

57,058
50,215

56,792
49,712

Food services & drinking places ………..

4.2

66,274

67,973

63,693

64,236

64,705

64,532

63,944

63,313

62,064

61,390

378,641

(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

(NA) Not available

(a) Advance estimate

(p) Preliminary estimate

(r) Revised estimate

(S) Estimate does not meet publication standards because of high sampling variability (coefficient of variation is greater than 30%), poor response quality
(total quantity response rate is less than 50%), or other concerns about the estimate's quality.
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics
(2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail
(3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.
(4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, July 16, 2019. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on
confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
.

Attachment 1

Table 2. Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
and administrative records.)
1

Percent Change

Apr. 2019
Jun. 2019 Advance

May 2019 Preliminary

through

from --

Jun. 2019 from -Jan. 2019
Apr. 2018
through
through
Mar. 2019
Jun. 2018

Kind of Business

NAICS
code

May 19
(p)
Retail & food services,
total ………………………………..…………..………….. 0.4
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) …..
0.4
Total (excl. gasoline stations) ………………………….0.7
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts &
gasoline stations) ……………………….………….. 0.7
Retail ………………………..………..…………..

Jun. 2018
(r)

Apr. 2019
(r)

May 18
(r)

3.4
3.3
3.9

0.4
0.4
0.5

2.9
2.8
3.0

1.8
1.7
1.7

3.4
3.3
3.5

3.8

0.5

3.0

1.5

3.5

0.4

3.3

0.3

2.7

1.7

3.2

0.7
0.8

4.1
4.1

0.7
0.7

3.3
3.2

2.4
2.5

3.5
3.4

441
4411, 4412

Motor vehicle & parts dealers …………………..
Auto & other motor veh. dealers …

442

Furniture & home furn. stores …………………..

0.5

0.8

-0.1

0.2

2.0

-0.2

443

Electronics & appliance stores …….…………..

-0.3

-5.0

0.8

-4.5

-0.8

-5.2

444

Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers…………………………………..

0.5

-2.5

-1.5

-1.7

-3.4

-0.9

445
4451

Food & beverage stores…………………………..
Grocery stores …………………….…………..

0.5
0.5

2.9
3.1

0.1
0.2

2.3
2.6

1.1
1.1

2.5
2.7

446

Health & personal care stores …………………..

0.5

5.5

0.9

3.5

1.5

4.5

447

Gasoline stations ……………………..…………..

-2.8

-1.7

-0.8

1.8

3.5

1.6

448

Clothing & clothing accessories
stores ……………………….……………………..………….. 0.5

-0.9

-0.2

-2.9

0.8

-1.1

451

Sporting goods, hobby, musical
instrument, & book stores ………………………..

0.0

-3.3

-0.1

-6.6

1.5

-5.5

452
4521

General merchandise stores……………………..
Department stores ……………………….

0.2
-1.1

2.5
-5.2

0.2
-0.6

1.1
-6.7

1.5
-1.1

2.2
-5.9

453

Miscellaneous store retailers ……….…………..

0.6

3.2

0.8

1.6

3.8

2.6

454

Nonstore retailers …………………….…………..

1.7

13.4

1.7

12.1

3.5

11.9

722

Food services & drinking places …………..

0.9

4.0

1.0

4.2

2.5

4.6

(p) Preliminary estimate

(r) Revised estimate

(1) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, July 16, 2019. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability.
Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
.

Attachment 1

Table 3. Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability and Revision to Advance Estimates June 2019
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey and Monthly Retail Trade Survey)

NAICS Code

Kind of Business

Median
CV (1) for
Current Mo.
(%)

441
4411, 4412
442
443
444
445
4451
446
447
448
451
452
4521
453
454
722

Retail & food services,
total ………………..……………………………………… 0.7
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ………..
0.8
Total (excl. gasoline stations) ………………………….0.7
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts &
gasoline stations) ………………………………
0.8
Retail, total …..……………………………………….. 0.5
Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……………….
1.2
Auto & other motor veh. dealers …………
1.2
Furniture & home furn. stores……………….
2.2
Electronics & appliance stores …………………………..
1.2
Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers………………………………………… 1.4
Food & beverage stores………………………………. 0.7
Grocery stores ……………………………….
0.6
Health & personal care stores ………………
1.9
Gasoline stations ……………………………………… 1.5
Clothing & clothing accessories
stores ……………………………………………………
1.9
Sporting goods, hobby, musical
instrument, & book stores ………………..….
3.7
General merchandise stores…………………
0.7
Department stores ……………………………
0.0
Miscellaneous store retailers ………………….
3.8
1.2
Nonstore retailers …………………………………..
3.5
Food services & drinking places ………………

Median standard error(1) for
Percent change

Revision for monthto-month change(2)

Previous Mo.
to
Current Mo.

Previous Qtr.
to
Current Qtr.

Current Mo.
to same
Mo. Last Yr.

Average
revision

Median
absolute
revision

0.3
0.2
0.3

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.4
0.4

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.2
0.3
0.2

0.2
0.3
0.9
1.0
1.3
0.5

0.2
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.8
0.5

0.5
0.3
1.1
1.1
1.7
0.9

0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3

0.2
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7

0.8
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4

0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4

1.0
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.7

0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1

0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5

0.6

0.9

0.0

0.6

0.8
0.1
0.0
2.1
0.5
0.9

0.9
0.1
0.0
1.5
0.4
0.7

1.5
0.3
0.0
2.3
0.8
2.0

-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.2

0.7
0.3
0.2
1.2
0.4
0.3

(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading day variation. Medians are based
on estimates for the most recent 12 months.
(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the
same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most
recent 12 months.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, July 16, 2019. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error,
nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at .

Attachment 1

FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, THURSDAY, JULY 25, 2019

MONTHLY ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT, JUNE 2019
Release Number: CB19-111
July 25, 2019 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following international trade, wholesale inventories,
and retail inventories advance statistics for June 2019:
ADVANCE
INTERNATIONAL
TRADE: GOODS DEFICIT
JUNE 2019

$74.2 Billion

MAY 2019

$75.0 Billion

-1.2%°

ADVANCE
WHOLESALE
INVENTORIES
$680.0 Billion
$678.4 Billion (R)

+0.2%*

ADVANCE
RETAIL
INVENTORIES
$662.4 Billion

-0.1%*

$663.3 Billion (R)

Next release: August 29, 2019.
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
° Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Advance Economic Indicators Report, July 25, 2019.

Advance International Trade in Goods
The international trade deficit was $74.2 billion in June, down $0.9 billion from $75.0 billion in May.
Exports of goods for June were $136.3 billion, $3.7 billion less than May exports. Imports of goods for June
were $210.5 billion, $4.6 billion less than May imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale inventories for June, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated
at an end-of-month level of $680.0 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from May 2019, and were up 7.9
percent (±1.1 percent) from June 2018. The April 2019 to May 2019 percentage change was unrevised
from the preliminary estimate of up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).
Advance Retail Inventories
Retail inventories for June, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at
an end-of-month level of $662.4 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from May 2019, and were up
4.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2018. The April 2019 to May 2019 percentage change was revised
from up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).
The July 2019 Advance report is scheduled for release on August 29, 2019. View the full schedule in the
Economic Briefing Room: . The full text and tables of this release
can be found at .

Attachment 1

EXPLANATORY NOTES
International Trade in Goods
Goods (Census Basis)
Data for goods on a Census basis are compiled from the documents collected by the U.S. Customs and
Border Protection and reflect the movement of goods between foreign countries and the 50 states, the
District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and U.S. Foreign Trade Zones. They include
government and non-government shipments of goods and exclude shipments between the United States
and its territories and possessions; transactions with U.S. military, diplomatic, and consular installations
abroad; U.S. goods returned to the United States by its Armed Forces; personal and household effects of
travelers; and in-transit shipments. Data for U.S. exports to Canada are derived from import data compiled
by Canada. For more information on the data exchange and substitution please refer to the FT-900. The
General Imports value reflects the total arrival of merchandise from foreign countries that immediately
enters consumption channels, warehouses, or Foreign Trade Zones.
For imports, the value reported is the U.S. Customs and Border Protection appraised value of
merchandise—generally, the price paid for merchandise for export to the United States. Import duties,
freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to the United States are excluded.
Exports are valued at the free alongside ship value of merchandise at the U.S. port of export, based on the
transaction price including inland freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in placing the merchandise
alongside the carrier at the U.S. port of exportation.
Additional information on coverage and valuation are available in the Guide to Foreign Trade Statistics,
and , respectively.
Nonsampling Errors
Goods data are a complete enumeration of documents collected by the U.S. Customs and Border
Protection and are not subject to sampling errors. This report presents current month statistics which
reflect nearly complete coverage. Current month statistics reflecting complete coverage will be published
in the upcoming U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (FT-900). Statistics for other months
shown reflect complete coverage and appear in the most recently published FT-900. Quality assurance
procedures are performed at every stage of collection, processing, and tabulation. However, the data are
still subject to several types of nonsampling errors. Information on nonsampling errors and other quality

Attachment 1

issues are available in the Guide to Foreign Trade Statistics, .
The U.S. Census Bureau recommends that data users incorporate this information into their analyses, as
nonsampling errors could impact the conclusion drawn from the results. For a detailed discussion of errors
affecting the goods data, see U.S. Merchandise Trade Statistics: A Quality Profile (October 2014), available
at or from the Economic Indicators Division,
U.S. Census Bureau.
Adjustments for Seasonal and Trading-Day Variations
Goods data are presented on a seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted basis. Seasonally adjusted
(and/or trading day adjusted data) are produced using X-13ARIMA-SEATS software to develop monthly
adjustment factors. Goods data are initially classified under the Harmonized Commodity Description and
Coding System (Harmonized System), which is an internationally accepted standard for the commodity
classification of traded goods. Combining trade into approximately 140 export and 140 import end-use
categories makes it possible to examine goods according to their principal uses. These categories are used
as the basis for computing the seasonal and trading-day adjusted data. These adjusted data are then
summed to the six end-use aggregates for publication.
For more information, visit the seasonal adjustment section of the Guide to Foreign Trade here:

Retail and Wholesale Inventories
National estimates of end-of-month inventories are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey
and the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey. Additional information for each survey can be found at
and . The advance estimates contained in this
report are not incorporated into the full MRTS and MWTS time series.
The MRTS and MWTS samples selected to measure inventories consist of a stratified simple random
sampling method of approximately 11,000 retail firms and 4,200 wholesale firms located in the United
States. The retail and wholesale samples include firms of all sizes and are updated on a quarterly basis to
account for new retail and wholesale firms, deaths, and other changes to the universe.
Data for nonresponding firms are imputed based on data for similar-sized firms classified in the same kind
of business. For surveyed Retail companies, approximately 45.9 percent provided data for this reporting
period resulting in a total quantity response rate of 52.8 percent. For surveyed Wholesale companies,
approximately 50.9 percent provided data for this reporting period resulting in a total quantity response
rate of 51.2 percent.

Attachment 1

MRTS estimates cover companies with one or more establishments that sell merchandise and related
services to final consumers. Nonemployers are represented in the retail estimates through benchmarking
to prior annual survey estimates that include nonemployer sales based on administrative records.
MWTS estimates cover wholesale merchants who sell goods on their own account and include such
businesses as wholesale merchants or jobbers, industrial distributors, exporters, and importers. Sales
offices and branches maintained by manufacturing, refining, or mining firms for the purpose of marketing
their products are not covered in this report. Also excluded is NAICS Industry Group 4251: Wholesale
Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the retail and wholesale estimates are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and
nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a
complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error
occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors
and coefficients of variation are estimated measures of sampling variation.
The margin of sampling error gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If,
for example, the percentage change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9
percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.753 x 0.9 percent or ±1.6 percent, and the 90 percent
confidence interval is −0.4 percent to +2.8 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have
sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero
and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes are statistically significant
unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting
confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.753 x CV x (the estimated monthly total).
Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey
estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of
businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response,
coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs
quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
The U.S. Census Bureau recommends that individuals using retail and wholesale estimates incorporate this
information into their analyses, as sampling error and nonsampling error could affect the conclusions
drawn from the estimates.

Attachment 1

Adjustments for Seasonal Variations
Concurrent seasonal adjustment is used to adjust the retail and wholesale inventories estimates for
seasonal variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to
the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the retail and
wholesale estimates of current and previous month inventories and for inventories estimates a year ago as
well.
Data Availability
The Advance Economic Indicators Report is available at .
For archived versions of the Advance Economic Indicators Report please visit the Historical Data tab at the
following: .
RESOURCES
API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new
users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever
before.

###
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
° Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable for this survey.
(R) Revised from the last published Monthly Retail Trade Report and Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Report

Attachment 1
-1-

Table 1. U.S. International Trade in Goods by Principal End-Use Category (1)
In millions of dollars. Details may not equal totals due to seasonal adjustment and rounding. (X) - Not applicable

Goods - Census Basis (2)
Monthly
June
2019
(a)

May
2019

April
2019

June
2018

June 2019/
May 2019

Percent change
May 2019/
April 2019

June 2019/
June 2018

Seasonally Adjusted
Balance
Exports
Foods, Feeds, & Beverages
Industrial Supplies (3)
Capital Goods
Automotive Vehicles, etc.
Consumer Goods
Other Goods
Imports
Foods, Feeds, & Beverages
Industrial Supplies (3)
Capital Goods
Automotive Vehicles, etc.
Consumer Goods
Other Goods

-74,171
136,285
12,003
44,493
44,887
13,240
16,138
5,523
210,456
12,697
42,967
56,832
32,615
54,677
10,669

-75,049
140,033
11,940
44,396
46,075
13,798
18,106
5,718
215,081
12,786
46,392
57,251
33,234
55,646
9,773

-70,931
136,077
11,211
44,602
44,724
13,172
17,290
5,077
207,009
12,843
44,593
55,614
30,908
54,296
8,755

-68,462
141,502
12,698
46,608
47,311
12,937
16,483
5,466
209,964
12,188
48,550
57,448
30,364
53,030
8,385

(X)
-2.7
0.5
0.2
-2.6
-4.0
-10.9
-3.4
-2.2
-0.7
-7.4
-0.7
-1.9
-1.7
9.2

(X)
2.9
6.5
-0.5
3.0
4.7
4.7
12.6
3.9
-0.5
4.0
2.9
7.5
2.5
11.6

(X)
-3.7
-5.5
-4.5
-5.1
2.3
-2.1
1.0
0.2
4.2
-11.5
-1.1
7.4
3.1
27.2

-69,399
137,876
10,075
44,242
46,471
13,778
17,749
5,561
207,274
12,468
43,666
57,760
32,187
50,833
10,361

-78,627
142,208
10,594
45,854
46,739
14,975
18,225
5,821
220,835
13,469
48,983
59,179
33,393
55,831
9,981

-73,914
135,118
10,615
45,182
44,160
13,532
16,545
5,084
209,032
13,364
46,268
56,177
31,481
52,565
9,177

-66,476
145,370
11,056
46,619
49,654
13,604
18,870
5,567
211,846
12,161
50,263
59,589
30,406
51,025
8,403

(X)
-3.0
-4.9
-3.5
-0.6
-8.0
-2.6
-4.5
-6.1
-7.4
-10.9
-2.4
-3.6
-9.0
3.8

(X)
5.2
-0.2
1.5
5.8
10.7
10.2
14.5
5.6
0.8
5.9
5.3
6.1
6.2
8.8

(X)
-5.2
-8.9
-5.1
-6.4
1.3
-5.9
-0.1
-2.2
2.5
-13.1
-3.1
5.9
-0.4
23.3

Not Seasonally Adjusted
Balance
Exports
Foods, Feeds, & Beverages
Industrial Supplies (3)
Capital Goods
Automotive Vehicles, etc.
Consumer Goods
Other Goods
Imports
Foods, Feeds, & Beverages
Industrial Supplies (3)
Capital Goods
Automotive Vehicles, etc.
Consumer Goods
Other Goods
(a) Advance statistics
(1) For a listing of the detail included in each end-use category, see .
(2) Data are presented on a Census basis. The information needed to convert to a balance of payment basis is not available.
(3) Includes petroleum and petroleum products.
NOTES:
* Current month statistics reflect nearly complete coverage; current month statistics reflecting complete coverage will be published in the upcoming U.S.
International Trade in Goods and Services report (FT-900). Statistics for other months shown reflect complete coverage and appear in the most recently
published FT-900.
* For information on data sources, nonsampling errors, and definitions, see the explanatory notes in this release or at
.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Advance Economic Indicators Report, July 25, 2019.

Attachment 1
-2-

Table 2. Levels and Percent Changes for Inventories
Inventories estimates are shown in millions of dollars. Estimates are based on data from the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey and the
Monthly Retail Trade Survey.

Inventories
Monthly
May
2019
(r)

June
2019
(a)

June
2018
(r)

Percent change
May 2019/
April 2019

June 2019/
May 2019

June 2019/
June 2018

Adjusted1
2

Merchant wholesale trade, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods

680,016
424,361
255,655

678,392
422,502
255,890

630,267
384,568
245,699

0.2
0.4
-0.1

0.4
0.3
0.6

7.9
10.3
4.1

Retail trade, total
Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)
Motor vehicle & parts dealers

662,375
419,397
242,978

663,329
419,643
243,686

634,398
407,607
226,791

-0.1
-0.1
-0.3

0.3
0.2
0.5

4.4
2.9
7.1

Merchant wholesale trade, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods

672,704
423,337
249,367

672,814
422,112
250,702

623,849
383,942
239,907

0.0
0.3
-0.5

-0.6
0.1
-1.8

7.8
10.3
3.9

Retail trade, total
Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)
Motor vehicle & parts dealers

655,365
411,678
243,687

658,073
412,296
245,777

627,657
399,998
227,659

-0.4
-0.1
-0.9

-0.6
-0.4
-0.9

4.4
2.9
7.0

Not Adjusted
2

(a) Advance estimate
(r) Revised estimate
See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

Table 3. Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability
Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey and the Monthly Retail Trade
Survey.

Inventories
Monthly
Coefficient of Variation
June
May
June
2019
2019
2018
(a)
(r)
(r)

Standard Error of
Percent Change
May 2019/
April 2019

June 2019/
May 2019

June 2019/
June 2018

Merchant wholesale2 trade, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods

1.8
2.4
1.5

1.4
2.1
1.4

0.1
0.1
0.2

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.6
1.0
1.0

Retail trade, total
Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)
Motor vehicle & parts dealers

0.6
0.6
1.2

0.6
0.6
1.3

0.6
0.5
1.4

0.1
0.0
0.2

0.1
0.0
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.7

(a) Advance estimate
(r) Revised estimate
(1) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available not adjusted
estimates as input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in
this table.
(2) The 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers’ sales
branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers’ sales branches and offices. Note that
this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey
data products.
NOTES:
Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation. Additional information on confidentiality protection,
sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
for wholesale and at
for retail.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Advance Economic Indicators Report, July 25, 2019.

Attachment 1

FOR RELEASE AT 10:00 AM EDT, THURSDAY, AUGUST 15, 2019

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES, JUNE 2019
Release Number: CB19-116
Special Notice: With the release of the August 2019 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report,
the MTIS time series tables that are available as Text files will change to Excel format. This change will impact
the August 2019 MTIS release as well as each subsequent monthly release. For further information as well as
examples of the new files, please visit .
August 15, 2019 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following new manufacturing and trade statistics
for June 2019:
Total Business Inventories / Sales Ratios: 2010 to 2019
1.55

BUSINESS INVENTORIES

1.50
1.45

JUNE 2019

$2,035.7 billion

0.0%*

MAY 2019
(revised)

$2,035.8 billion

+0.3%

Next release: September 13, 2019
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient evidence
to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales,
August 15, 2019.

1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, August 15, 2019.
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday and trading day differences but not for price changes)

Sales
The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal
and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,460.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.2
percent)* from May 2019 and was up 1.3 percent (±0.4 percent) from June 2018.
Inventories
Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were
estimated at an end-of-month level of $2,035.7 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.1 percent)* from May 2019,
but were up 5.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from June 2018.
Inventories/Sales Ratio
The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.39. The
June 2018 ratio was 1.34.
General Information
The July 2019 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report is scheduled for release on September
13, 2019. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room: .
EXPLANATORY NOTES

Attachment 1

Reliability of Estimates
The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent
confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the
true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the
estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval
is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or
decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included
in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of
sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame
and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also
subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error
(failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample) response errors, coding errors, and
nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were
taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.
Description of the Survey
The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the
Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments,
Inventories, and Orders Survey. Data for the wholesale and manufacturing sectors are unrevised from the
most recent Monthly Wholesale Trade Report and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories
and orders. Data from the Retail sector is revised and presented in more detail from the most recent Advance
Economic Indicators Report. For more information on these surveys see the links below:
, , and .
RESOURCES
API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new
users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever before.

FRED Mobile App
Receive the latest updates on the nation’s key economic indicators by downloading the
FRED App for both Apple and Android
devices. FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, now
incorporates the Census Bureau’s 13 economic indicators.
###
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

Attachment 1

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
(In millions of dollars)

Sales

Inventories

Inventories/Sales Ratios

Jun. 2019

May 2019

Jun. 2018

Jun. 2019

May 2019

Jun. 2018

Jun. 2019

May 2019

Jun. 2018

(p)

(r)

(p)

(r)

(p)

(r)

Adjusted

Total business………………………

1,460,084

1,458,214

1,441,800

2,035,698

2,035,784

1,934,716

1.39

1.40

1.34

Manufacturers²……………………

506,153

504,257

501,313

695,585

694,247

669,588

1.37

1.38

1.34

Retailers³………………………………

455,392

454,135

441,099

661,444

663,185

634,570

1.45

1.46

1.44

Merchant wholesalers⁴…………

498,539

499,822

499,388

678,669

678,352

630,558

1.36

1.26

Total business………………………

1,472,019

1,527,171

1,481,626

2,017,625

2,029,098

1,917,092

1.37

1.33

1.29

Manufacturers²……………………

523,671

522,423

525,660

692,267

698,116

665,586

1.32

1.34

1.27

Retailers³………………………………

452,164

479,072

445,793

654,164

658,054

627,657

1.45

1.37

1.41

Merchant wholesalers⁴…………

496,184

525,676

510,173

671,194

672,928

623,849

1.35

1.28

1.22

Not Adjusted

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our website at
.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, August 15, 2019.

Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
Adjusted

Not Adjusted

Sales

Inventories

Jun. 19/

May 19/

Jun. 19/

May 19/

Jun. 19/

May 19/

Jun. 19/

May 19/

Jun. 19/

May 19

Apr. 19

Jun. 18

May 19

Apr. 19

Jun. 18

May 19

Apr. 19

Jun. 18

May 19

Apr. 19

Jun. 18

Total business…………………………

0.1

-0.1

1.3

0.0

0.3

5.2

-3.6

4.5

-0.6

-0.4

5.2

Manufacturers2………………………

0.4

0.1

1.0

0.2

3.9

0.2

3.3

-0.4

-0.8

0.2

4.0

Retailers3…………………………………

0.3

0.4

3.2

-0.3

0.3

4.2

-5.6

7.3

1.4

-0.6

4.2

Merchant wholesalers4……………

-0.3

-0.6

-0.2

0.0

0.4

7.6

-5.6

3.3

-2.7

-0.3

-0.6

7.6

See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not for price changes. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our website at
.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, August 15, 2019.

Attachment 1

Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of Business
(In millions of dollars)
Inventories3

Sales

Percent Change

Kind of Business

NAICS
Code

Inventories/Sales

In Inventories

Ratios

Jun. 2019

May 2019

Jun. 2018

Jun. 2019

May 2019

Jun. 2018

Jun. 19/

May 19/

Jun. 19/

Jun. 19

May 19

Jun. 18

(p)

(r)

(p)

(r)

May 19

Apr. 19

Jun. 18

(p)

(r)

455,392

454,135

441,099

661,444

663,185

634,570

-0.3

0.3

4.2

1.45

1.46

1.44

Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)……………………………………… 351,577

350,639

340,629

419,109

419,531

407,779

-0.1

0.2

2.8

1.19

1.20

103,815

103,496

100,470

242,335

243,654

226,791

-0.5

0.4

6.9

2.33

2.35

2.26

Adjusted 1
Retail trade, total………………………………………………………………

441
442,3

Motor vehicle & parts dealers…………………………………………..…

Furniture,home furn., elect. & appl. stores…………………………… 17,860

17,954

18,356

27,783

28,041

27,380

-0.9

-0.7

1.5

1.56

1.49

444

Building materials, garden equip & supplies…………………………

30,984

30,918

31,958

59,480

59,439

56,366

0.1

0.5

5.5

1.92

1.76

445

Food & beverage stores…………………………………………..……………

64,969

64,439

62,813

49,458

49,407

47,803

0.1

0.5

3.5

0.76

0.77

0.76

448

Clothing & clothing access. stores…………………………………..……

22,373

22,385

22,683

51,360

51,619

51,255

-0.5

-0.3

0.2

2.30

2.31

2.26

452

General merchandise stores…………………………………………..……… 59,876

4521

59,839

58,637

80,669

80,427

80,193

0.3

-0.5

0.6

1.35

1.34

1.37

11,390

11,515

12,027

23,475

23,498

25,445

-0.1

-0.2

-7.7

2.06

2.04

2.12

Retail trade, total…………………………………………..…………………… 452,164

Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.)…………………………………………
Not Adjusted

441

479,072

445,793

654,164

658,054

627,657

-0.6

4.2

1.45

1.37

1.41

Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)………………………………………

346,448

366,223

341,041

411,344

412,288

399,998

-0.2

-0.4

2.8

1.19

1.13

1.17

Motor vehicle & parts dealers…………………………………………..…

105,716

112,849

104,752

242,820

245,766

227,659

-1.2

-0.9

6.7

2.30

2.18

2.17

Furniture,home furn., elect. & appl. stores…………………………… 16,954

17,638

17,765

27,061

27,172

26,723

-0.4

1.3

1.60

1.54

1.50

444

Building materials, garden equip & supplies…………………………

34,141

37,844

36,045

59,837

61,638

56,648

-2.9

-1.5

5.6

1.75

1.63

1.57

445

Food & beverage stores…………………………………………..……………

64,834

66,911

63,240

49,206

49,011

47,544

0.4

1.0

3.5

0.76

0.73

0.75

448

Clothing & clothing access. stores…………………………………..……

21,063

23,200

21,589

50,230

50,483

50,179

-0.5

-1.0

0.1

2.38

2.18

2.32

452

General merchandise stores…………………………………………………

58,879

61,068

57,871

77,198

77,719

76,678

-0.7

-1.4

0.7

1.31

1.27

1.32

4521

Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.)…………………………………………

10,639

11,400

11,256

21,949

22,441

23,791

-2.2

-2.7

-7.7

2.06

1.97

2.11

442,3

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.
1

Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent
seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale
estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance
month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
2

Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length
of the reporting period.
3

Adjusted and not adjusted inventories for aggregate levels retail trade total, total excluding motor vehicles and parts, and motor vehicle and parts dealers are revised from the Advance Economic Indicators Report.

The 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers'
sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our website at .
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, August 15, 2019.

Attachment 1

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MONDAY, AUGUST 19, 2019, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT
Data Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch: (301) 763-2713
Media Inquiries Public Information Office: (301) 763-3030

CB19-117

QUARTERLY RETAIL E-COMMERCE SALES
2nd QUARTER 2019
SPECIAL NOTICE: Quarterly retail e-commerce estimates were revised based on the results of the 2017 Annual Retail
Trade Survey. For the full Adjusted and Not Adjusted Time Series, see
.
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales
for the second quarter of 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $146.2 billion, an
increase of 4.2 percent (±0.9%) from the first quarter of 2019. Total retail sales for the second quarter of 2019 were
estimated at $1,361.8 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent (±0.2%) from the first quarter of 2019. The second quarter
2019 e-commerce estimate increased 13.3 percent (±1.6%) from the second quarter of 2018 while total retail sales
increased 3.2 percent (±0.5%) in the same period. E-commerce sales in the second quarter of 2019 accounted for 10.7
percent of total sales.
On a not adjusted basis, the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2019 totaled $139.7
billion, an increase of 8.3 percent (±0.9%) from the first quarter of 2019. The second quarter 2019 e-commerce
estimate increased 13.6 percent (±1.6%) from the second quarter of 2018 while total retail sales increased 3.4 percent
(±0.5%) in the same period. E-commerce sales in the second quarter of 2019 accounted for 10.1 percent of total sales.
Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail E-commerce Sales as a Percent of Total Quarterly Retail Sales:
1st Quarter 2010 – 2nd Quarter 2019
Percent of Total

The Quarterly Retail E-Commerce sales estimate for the third quarter of 2019 is scheduled for release on November 19, 2019 at
10:00 A.M. EST.
For information, including estimates from 4th quarter 1999 forward, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at
. For additional information about Census Bureau e-business measurement programs and plans
visit .
* The 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different from zero.

Attachment 1

Table 1.
Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce1
(Estimates are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey and administrative records. Unless otherwise
specified, all estimates are revised based on the 2017 Annual Retail Trade Survey.)
.

Total

E-commerce

E-commerce
as a Percent
of
Total

2nd quarter 2019(p)

1,361,759

146,204

10.7

1.8

4.2

3.2

13.3

1st quarter 2019

1,338,082

140,346

10.5

0.3

4.0

2.6

12.0

4th quarter 2018

1,334,506

134,969

10.1

0.4

1.6

3.1

11.1

3rd quarter 2018

1,328,653

132,819

10.0

0.7

2.9

5.2

13.8

2nd quarter 2018

1,319,569

129,046

9.8

1.2

3.0

5.6

14.2

2nd quarter 2019(p)

1,377,719

139,671

10.1

11.0

8.3

3.4

13.6

1st quarter 2019

1,241,540

129,015

10.4

-11.8

-19.8

1.8

11.6

4th quarter 2018

1,407,934

160,894

11.4

6.4

29.5

3.4

10.8

3rd quarter 2018

1,323,360

124,214

9.4

-0.7

1.0

4.8

14.1

122,934

9.2

9.3

6.3

5.3

14.8

Retail Sales
(millions of dollars)
Quarter
Adjusted

Percent Change
From Prior Quarter
Total

E-commerce

Percent Change
From Same Quarter
A Year Ago
Total
E-commerce

Not Adjusted

2nd quarter 2018
1,332,848
(p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate.
1 E-commerce sales are sales of

goods and services where the buyer places an order, or the price and terms of the sale are negotiated over an Internet, mobile
device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be
made online.
2 Estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. Total sales estimates are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving
holidays.
Note: Table 2 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample
design, and definitions, see http://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/how_surveys_are_collected.html.

Table 2.

Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability for Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales Estimates: Total and Ecommerce
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey.)
Coefficient of
Variation (CV)

SE for
Percent Change
From Prior Quarter

SE for Percent Change
From Same Quarter
A Year Ago

Total

E-commerce

Standard Error
(SE) for
E-commerce
as a Percent
of Total

2nd quarter 2019(p)

0.4

1.5

0.1

0.5

0.3

0.9

1st quarter 2019(r)

0.4

1.4

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.6

4th quarter 2018

0.4

1.4

0.1

0.6

0.5

1.5

3rd quarter 2018

0.4

1.5

0.1

0.3

0.8

2.5

2nd quarter 2018

0.4

1.4

0.1

0.4

0.8

2.4

Quarter

Total

E-commerce

Total

E-commerce

(p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate. (Z) Estimate is less than 0.05%.
Note: Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on data not adjusted for seasonal variation, trading-day differences, or moving holidays, and are
used to make confidence statements about both adjusted and not adjusted estimates. For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error,
nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions, see http://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/how_surveys_are_collected.html.

Attachment 1

Survey Description
Retail e-commerce sales are estimated from the same sample used for the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) to estimate
preliminary and final U.S. retail sales. Advance U.S. retail sales are estimated from a subsample of the MRTS sample that is not of
adequate size to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales.
A stratified simple random sampling method is used to select approximately 10,800 retail firms excluding food services
whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over two million retail firms.
The MRTS sample is probability based and represents all employer firms engaged in retail activities as defined by the North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Coverage includes all retailers whether or not they are engaged in ecommerce. Online travel services, financial brokers and dealers, and ticket sales agencies are not classified as retail and
are not included in either the total retail or retail e-commerce sales estimates. Nonemployers are represented in the
estimates through benchmarking to prior annual survey estimates that include nonemployer sales based on administrative
records. E-commerce sales are included in the total monthly sales estimates.
The MRTS sample is updated on an ongoing basis to account for new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the
Internet), business deaths, and other changes to the retail business universe. Firms are asked each month to report e-commerce
sales separately. For each month of the quarter, data for nonresponding sampling units are imputed from responding sampling
units falling within the same kind of business and sales size category or based on historical performance of that company.
Responding firms account for approximately 67 percent of the e-commerce sales estimate and about 72 percent of the estimate
of U.S. retail sales for any quarter.
For each month of the quarter, estimates are obtained by summing weighted sales (either reported or imputed). The
monthly estimates are benchmarked to prior annual survey estimates. Estimates for the quarter are obtained by
summing the monthly benchmarked estimates. The estimate for the most recent quarter is a preliminary estimate.
Therefore, the estimate is subject to revision. Data users who create their own estimates using data from this report should
cite the Census Bureau as the source of the input data only.
Adjusted Estimates
This report publishes estimates that have been adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences,
but not for price changes. We used quarterly e-commerce sales estimates for 4th quarter 1999 to the current quarter as
input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program to derive the adjusted estimates. For sales, we derived quarterly adjusted
estimates by summing adjusted monthly sales estimates for each respective quarter. Seasonal adjustment of estimates
is an approximation based on current and past experiences.
The X-13ARIMA-SEATS software improves upon the X-12 ARIMA seasonal adjustment software by providing enhanced
diagnostics as well as incorporating an enhanced version of the Bank of Spain’s SEATS (Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time
Series) software, which uses an ARIMA model-based procedure instead of the X-11 filter-based approach to estimate
seasonal factors. The X-13ARIMA-SEATS and X-12 ARIMA software produce identical results when using X-13ARIMASEATS with the X-11 filter-based adjustments. The X-13ARIMA-SEATS software and additional information on the X13ARIMA-SEATS program may be found at http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.
Note that the retail estimates continue to be adjusted using the X-11 filter-based adjustment procedure.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of
the population conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire population is
measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation, as given in Table 2 of this report, are estimated
measures of sampling variation.
The margin of error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If, for
example, the estimated percent change is -11.4% and its estimated standard error is 1.2%, then the margin of error is
±1.753 x 1.2% or 2.1%, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -13.5% to -9.3%. Confidence intervals are computed
based on the particular sample selected and canvassed. If one repeats the process of drawing all possible samples and
forming all corresponding confidence intervals, approximately 90 percent of these individual confidence intervals would
contain the estimate computed from a complete enumeration of all units on the sampling frame. If the confidence
interval contains 0%, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the
change is different from zero.
Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This
type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses with ecommerce sales, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or
processing. Although not directly measured, precautionary steps are taken to minimize the effects of nonsampling
error.

File Type	application/pdf
Author	Brandon Jones (CENSUS/EID FED)
File Modified	2019-08-22
File Created	2019-07-15