Turkey Hatchery - Release

Turkey Hatchery
ISSN: 1949-1964

Released November 16, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Eggs in Incubators on November 1 Up 6 Percent from Last Year
Turkey eggs in incubators on November 1, 2018, in the United States totaled 30.3 million, up 6 percent from
November 1, 2017. Eggs in incubators were up 5 percent from the October 1, 2018 total of 28.8 million eggs.

Poults Hatched During October Down 1 Percent from Last Year
Turkey poults hatched during October 2018, in the United States totaled 24.2 million, down 1 percent from October 2017.
Poults hatched were up 8 percent from the September 2018 total of 22.4 million poults.

Net Poults Placed During October Up Slightly from Last Year
The 22.1 million net poults placed during October 2018 in the United States were up slightly from the number placed
during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were up 8 percent from the September 2018 total of
20.5 million.

Net Poult Placements – United States
Million poults
26
25

24
23
22
21
2017

2018

20
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month – United States: 2017-2019
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun.]
Month

September ..............................
October ...................................
November ...............................
December ...............................
January ...................................
February .................................
March ......................................
April ........................................
May .........................................
June ........................................
July .........................................
August ....................................

Eggs in incubators
first of month
2017-2018

2018-2019

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 eggs)

(1,000 eggs)

(percent)

28,974
28,072
28,605
27,806
28,920
28,396
28,463
28,232
28,815
28,567
28,561
29,090

27,394
28,750
30,273

95
102
106

Poults hatched
entire month
2017-2018

2018-2019

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

23,530
24,393
23,246
22,375
24,293
22,647
24,186
23,482
23,503
23,337
25,727
23,990

22,443
24,238

95
99

Net Poult Placements by Month – United States: 2017-2019
[Includes imports and excludes exports.]
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun.]
Total all
breeds
2017-2018

2018-2019

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

Month

September ..............................
October ...................................
November ...............................
December ...............................
January ...................................
February .................................
March ......................................
April ........................................
May .........................................
June ........................................
July .........................................
August ....................................

2

20,670
22,030
21,399
20,766
22,564
21,401
22,820
22,214
22,036
22,411
25,648
23,271

20,468
22,084

99
100

Cumulative
total
2017-2018

2018-2019

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

20,670
42,700
64,099
84,865
107,429
128,830
151,650
173,864
195,900
218,311
243,959
267,230

20,468
42,552

99
100

Turkey Hatchery (November 2018)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS
regional field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their
lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults
annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via
mail, fax, or electronic data reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that
all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.
Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data
are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends
from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS
regional field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed
to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of
hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.
Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey
Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available
for slaughter during the calendar year.
States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and
Wisconsin.
Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are
published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production Annual Summary report in April.
Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no
sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict
quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected
items in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past performance and is
computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for turkey eggs in
incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 30.3 million eggs by more than 1.5 percent. Chances
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.6 percent.

Reliability of November Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
Item

Difference between first and latest estimate

Root mean
square error

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Months
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)

Eggs in incubators ......................................

1.5

2.6

304

4

1,359

20

4

Poults hatched ............................................

0.8

1.3

142

13

577

16

8

Net poult placements ..................................

1.7

3.0

317

22

810

7

17

Turkey Hatchery (November 2018)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov
Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ..................................................................... (202) 690-3223
Holly Brenize – Poultry Slaughter ............................................................................................................. (202) 720-0585
Alissa Cowell-Mytar – Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .......................................... (202) 720-4751
Liana Cuffman – Catfish and Trout, Egg Products, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ................................. (202) 720-8784
Fatema Haque – Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ............................................................................. (202) 720-3244
Kim Linonis – Layers, Eggs ..................................................................................................................... (202) 690-3676
Adam Peters – Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised .................................................................................... (202) 690-3237
Erica Sadler – Cost of Pollination, Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ............................................................. (202) 720-6147

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For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:
 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov
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subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on “National” or “State” in upper right corner above “search”
box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540,
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.

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