Supporting Statement Part B

SUPPORTING STATEMENT

U.S Department of Commerce

U.S Census Bureau

Current Population Survey (CPS) Basic Demographic

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Control No. 0607-0049

B. COLLECTION OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1. Universe and Respondent Selection

The universe for the CPS is 114 million households. From this universe, we select a sample of approximately 72,000 households each month. Of these, approximately 59,000 households will be eligible for interview.

2. Procedures for Collecting Information

Attachment A gives an overview of the CPS sample design and weighting methodology. The CPS produces demographic data, labor force data, and data from various periodic supplemental inquiries. We designed the CPS sample to produce estimates of employment and unemployment characteristics with sufficient reliability to meet the BLS' requirements for monthly data and estimates of month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter, and year-to-year changes. The coefficient of variation on estimates of unemployment is 1.9 percent monthly at the national level. It is 8.0 percent annually at the state level. This degree of accuracy is sufficient to meet the needs mandated.

In accordance with our standard practice, the CPS sample has been redesigned based on information collected in the 2010 Decennial Census. (See Attachment A).

One of the primary goals for the CPS is to provide estimates of month-to-month change in the employment and unemployment statistics. The current rotation pattern for the CPS (4-8-4) was chosen because it provides such estimates reliably with a much smaller sample size than an annual rotation would.

3. Methods to Maximize Response

We maintain response rates and data accuracy for the CPS at high levels through interviewer instruction and training, and close monitoring of data output. (Refer to section 3 of Attachment A for a discussion of the CPS nonresponse.)

4. Testing of Procedures

An extensive program of testing was conducted on CPS methods, procedures, and content from May 1978 through December 1993 using the Methods Development Survey (MDS), and its predecessor, the Methods Test Panel (MTP).

The results of the testing have become the CPS Labor Force instrument, which uses an automated Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing/

Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing environment. For information

on the results, see the February 1994 Employment and Earnings article

titled, “Revisions to the Current Population Survey Effective

January 1994.”

In addition, since 1994 the roster and demographic collection questions have been thoroughly vetted and reviewed on a regular basis. Any changes to the Roster Collection or Demographic Characteristic questions are reviewed at the corporate level within the U.S. Census Bureau. Following standard testing procedures, any changes are cognitively tested, then tested in the field by the survey designated to first use them, and then reviewed and incorporated in any other survey using the same mode, with a need for the same collection. The current questions covered under this clearance request were included in the most recent Decennial Census Content test, American Community Survey (ACS) content test, and ACS production.

Procedurally, each month before production each data processing system is tested for any errors. On a test platform, we mimic interviewing to collect test data. As part of the initial load of data and instruments, we test case assignments in the field as well. In the winter of 2013, as part of the sample redesign that will begin in April 2014, all systems were thoroughly tested in three rounds.

5. Contacts Statistical Aspects and Data Collection

The following individuals may be contacted on the statistical data collection and analysis operations:

Statistical Design:

Yang Cheng

Lead Scientist, Current Population Survey

Demographic Statistical Methods Division

Census Bureau

(301) 763-3287

Data Collection Survey Design:

Lisa A. Clement

Survey Director, Current Population and Time Use Surveys,

Associate Directorate Demographics Programs

(301) 763-3806

Attachments

A - Overview of the CPS Sample Design and Methodology

B-1 - CPS Demographic Items

B-2 - CPS Weather Related Items (as needed basis)

C - CPS Supplements for 2018 and 2019

D-1 - CPS-263(MIS-1), CPS-263(SP)(MIS-1) - Advance Letter

D-2 - CPS-264(MIS-5), CPS-264(SP)(MIS-5) - Advance Letter

D-3 - CPS-266 Thank You Cards

E-1 - BC-1433, BC-1433(SP) CPS Fact Sheet

E-2 - CPS-692 CPS Monthly Flow of CPS Data

E-3 - BC-1428, BC-1428(SP) Confidentiality Brochures

F - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request