Deterministic Case Study - Community Organizations & Regional Businesses

MEMORANDUM | September 6, 2016
TO

David Alspach, Office of Chief Information Officer, US Department of Interior

CC

Fain Gildea, Secretary’s Indian Water Rights Office (SIWRO), US Department of Interior

FROM
SUBJECT

Robert Unsworth, Brent Boehlert, and Jessica Murray, Industrial Economics, Inc. (IEc);
Travis Greenwalt and Barbara Wyse, Highland Economics
Indian Water Rights Settlements: Economic Analysis Information Collection Approach
specific to the Gila River Case Study

To complete the Indian Water Rights Settlements: Economic Analysis project, IEc will
conduct four deterministic case studies on the economic outcomes associated with
individual Indian water rights settlements (IWRS). The settlements selected for case
studies in this project are Gila River (Arizona), Nez Perce (Idaho), Soboba (California)
and Taos Pueblo (New Mexico). The data requirements for these case studies will inform
our understanding of whether each component of the settlement was in fact delivered, and
the timing and detail of the final action (e.g., was the infrastructure put in place and is it
functioning as expected). Understanding settlement outcomes will require targeted
interviews with informed entities representative of the tribal communities and other
beneficiaries. These interviews will focus on the physical, demographic, and
socioeconomic changes that the settlement has produced. The data requirements
associated with these interviews are presented in the gray boxes of Exhibit 1. Data
requirements will differ in each case study. Data inquiries for each case study will be
based on expectations of changes resulting from each individual settlement, and will be
specific to the nature and timing of the settlement. Participation in data collection and
interviews is voluntary. This memorandum uses the Gila River IWRS as a representative
case study to provide examples of entities we will contact and details of the data we aim
to obtain.
Broadly, interviews associated with each case study may include tribal leadership (i.e.,
the Tribal Councils), professional resource managers within the tribes (fisheries
management, water management, tribal budgeting department), and informed
representatives of agricultural districts and municipalities who have been designated
water rights or allocated funding through the settlement. Based on the findings of data
collection and targeted interviews, we then analyze the net socioeconomic benefits of the
settlement, using a range of specific metrics related to community health, economic
conditions, social and cultural well-being, and the state of ecosystem services, both on
and off the reservation. Specific examples of the benefits and metrics are included in
Exhibit 1.

EXHIBIT 1.

F R A M E W O R K F O R A N A LY S I S

Exhibits 2 through 8 present the points of contact, information requests, and estimated
levels of effort associated with fulfilling the requests for each of the metric categories we
plan to examine for the Gila River IWRS case study. These categories include:
•
•
•
•
•
•

Water use (Exhibit 2)
Economic net benefit: local (Exhibit 3) and regional (Exhibit 4)
Social well-being (Exhibit 5)
Cultural well-being (Exhibit 6)
Ecosystem services (Exhibit 7)
Health (Exhibit 8)

We anticipate that some of the data requested below does not exist or is not readily
available in a usable form. Therefore, the list of information requests presented below
can be thought of as a comprehensive list of potential data, and where available, would be
useful to the evaluation of impacts from IWRS. The information requested will not
require primary data collection by any entity we contact, and should not be time intensive
to collect or transfer to our project team.

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EXHIBIT 2.

POINT OF CONTACT

G I L A R I V E R WAT E R M E T R I C S I N T E RV I E W S T R U C T U R E

TYPES OF INFORMATION REQUESTED AND RELEVANT SETTLEMENT
REFERENCES

LEVEL OF EFFORT

Historic (pre-settlement) water deliveries for the Gila River Indian
Community (“Community”) for domestic, irrigation, industrial/commercial
purposes, preceding the settlement implementation. Include source of
water diverted, volume, and timing of deliveries.
Post-settlement implementation water deliveries to the Community for
domestic, irrigation, industrial/commercial purposes for all years following
the settlement.

Tribe / Gila River Farms

Volume and purpose of water banked in the Community's name (postsettlement implementation), including: Southside Replenishment Bank, and
Arizona Water Banking Authority.
Water savings from rehabilitation of irrigation works efforts described in
Section 214 (a1)

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing
available historic data (hard
copy or electronically).

Additional acreage irrigated on Gila River Indian Community Farms
resulting from water secured in settlement: types and acres of crops
grown, number of employees
Volume and type of use of Central Arizona Project (CAP) water leased by
the Community to others (Section 17.0 allows for 41,000 acre feet per year
(AFY) lease terms to the cities of Chandler, Goodyear, Glendale, Mesa,
Peoria, Phoenix and Scottsdale; additional water exchange provisions are
also relevant)

Cities of Chandler, Mesa,
Phoenix and Scottsdale, AZ

Current and future projections of water use by type of water use
(industrial, commercial, domestic), effect of water availability on urban
growth and development

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing existing
available data and analyses
(hard copy or electronically).

Water efficiency savings provided by improvements at Ft. Thomas Diversion
Dam as described in Section 214 (7)

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing existing
available analyses (hard copy
or electronically).

Irrigation activity expected under various levels of water available

Voluntary participation.
Discussion regarding
hypothetical example of
water use in an unconstrained
surface water situation (prior
to settlement) and water use
in a severely constrained
situation (e.g. if litigation
resulted in no surface water
available to district).

Gila Valley Irrigation District and
Franklin Irrigation District

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EXHIBIT 3.

POINT OF CONTACT

G I L A R I V E R L O C A L E C O N O M I C B E N E F I T M E T R I C S I N T E RV I E W
STRUCTURE

TYPES OF INFORMATION REQUESTED AND RELEVANT SETTLEMENT
REFERENCES

LEVEL OF EFFORT

Cities of Chandler, Mesa,
Phoenix and Scottsdale, AZ

If not for leased water from Gila River Indian Community (“Community”),
what would be the next best water supply alternative and its associated
cost per volume? What level (volume) of alternative water supplies is
available? Are alternative water supply sources of the same quality as
water from Community?

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing existing
available analyses (hard copy or
electronically).

City of Safford, AZ

Impacts of settlement funding on rate payers? ($13.9 million to eliminate
debt for city water infrastructure)

Voluntary participation.
Discussion regarding use of $13.9
million in funds received by the City
of Safford and past impacts on
rates.

Gila Valley Irrigation
District

Cost savings from improvements made from $15 million investment
(Section 214)

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing existing
available analyses (hard copy or
electronically).

Tribe

Impacts of the settlement funds on costs of water to Community water
users. Information on the use of settlement funds directed to community
water users (i.e., infrastructure capital costs, ongoing operations and
maintenance costs).

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing existing
available data (hard copy or
electronically).

Trends in equipment, seed or other input sales as result of shifts in
agriculture in the post-settlement time period

Voluntary participation.
Discussion regarding historic sales
and if / how shifts in agriculture
have impacted sales. Accessing and
sharing existing available data (hard
copy or electronically).

Agricultural activity input
suppliers of Arizona

4

EXHIBIT 4.

POINT OF CONTACT

G I L A R I V E R R E G I O N A L E C O N O M I C B E N E F I T M E T R I C S I N T E RV I E W
STRUCTURE

TYPES OF INFORMATION REQUESTED AND RELEVANT
SETTLEMENT REFERENCES

LEVEL OF EFFORT

Gila Valley Irrigation District

The timing and value of expenditures for the $15 million investment
(Section 214) and available detail on the use of the funds for labor
and materials, and the source (local versus out of region) of the labor
and materials

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing existing
available analyses (hard copy or
electronically).

Tribe

The timing and value of expenditures for tribal water supplies,
including available detail on the use of the funds for labor and
materials, and the source (local versus out of region) of the labor and
materials

Voluntary participation.
Discussion regarding timing and
value of expenditures.
Accessing and sharing available
historical data (hard copy or
electronically).

City of Safford, AZ

The timing and value of expenditures for city debt payment,
including information on what level of infrastructure investment the
city would have made in the absence of the settlement and $13.9
million in funds. i.e., was there a change in infrastructure spending
due to the settlement, or was it an income transfer to relieve debt
repayment that was already incurred?

Voluntary participation.
Discussion regarding use of $13.9
million in funds received by the City
of Safford and past impacts on
rates.

Trends in equipment, seed or other input sales as result of shifts in
agriculture that either occurred due to settlement or could have
occurred with litigation.

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing existing
available data and analyses of shifts
in agriculture output value
impacting local business, and how
shifts in the proportion of tribal vs.
non-tribal irrigation impacts local
business.

Agricultural activity input
suppliers of Arizona

5

EXHIBIT 5.

POINT OF CONTACT

G I L A R I V E R S O C I A L W E L L B E I N G M E T R I C S I N T E RV I E W S T R U C T U R E

TYPES OF INFORMATION REQUESTED

Agriculture Specialist at
Agricultural Services Program
of Gila River Indian
Community Irrigation and
Drainage District

Annual membership totals for community gardens; size of garden plots;
types of produce grown.

Data on trends and non-IWRS events (e.g. new tribal business ventures
not relying on or benefited from the settlement) that may have affected
welfare during period of analysis.

Tribe

Trends or changes in social well-being on reservation through time.
Qualitative scoping questions related to migration patterns, engagement
of tribal members, and other existing social well-being indicators.

EXHIBIT 6.

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing available
data (hard copy or
electronically).

Voluntary participation.
Supplying available data (hard
copy or electronically) on social
welfare metrics.

G I L A R I V E R C U LT U R A L W E L L B E I N G M E T R I C S I N T E RV I E W
STRUCTURE

POINT OF

TYPES OF INFORMATION REQUESTED AND RELEVANT SETTLEMENT

CONTACT

REFERENCES
Historic data on Tribal enrollment, population residing in the community, visitation
data and cultural events and participation rates

Tribe and/or
Bureau of Indian
Affairs

LEVEL OF EFFORT

Voting participation by tribal members

Discussion of cultural well-being on reservation, discussion of trends and non-IWRS
events that may have affected cultural well being. Discussion of factors affecting
tribal members' decisions to live on-reservation or in area nearby reservation.

LEVEL OF EFFORT
Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing available
historical data (hard copy or
electronically).
Voluntary participation.
Discussion regarding cultural
well-being on reservation, trends
and non-IWRS events that may
have affected cultural well
being.

6

EXHIBIT 7.

G I L A R I V E R E C O S Y S T E M S E RV I C E M E T R I C S I N T E RV I E W S T R U C T U R E

POINT OF

TYPES OF INFORMATION REQUESTED AND RELEVANT

CONTACT

SETTLEMENT REFERENCES

LEVEL OF EFFORT

Amount of decreed water rights (from Gila Valley or Franklin
Irrigation Districts) purchased and extinguished: acres of land
preserved for riparian habitat (Section 211 (2)); other impacts of
extinguished water right (e.g. water supply)
Data on species present in riparian areas (habitat types, species
inventories)

Tribe

Information on whether ancillary effects on groundwater levels,
flooding and water quality occurred as a result of settlement

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing
available historical data
(hard copy or
electronically).

Area currently zoned for recreation use in vicinity of reservation,
and other land uses in vicinity of reservation that may benefit
from aesthetic improvements

EXHIBIT 8.

POINT OF CONTACT

Gila River Health Care - Indian
Health Service

G I L A R I V E R H E A LT H M E T R I C S I N T E RV I E W S T R U C T U R E

TYPES OF INFORMATION REQUESTED AND RELEVANT
SETTLEMENT REFERENCES
Number of cases of obesity and diabetes by age of member
(historic to present)
Data on health issues and trends through time
Availability of fruits and vegetables on reservation

LEVEL OF EFFORT

Voluntary participation.
Accessing and sharing
available historical data
(hard copy or electronically).

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