Attachment D

Attachment D.pdf

Federal Statistical System Public Opinion Survey

Attachment D

OMB: 0607-0969

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Understanding Trust in Official
Statistics in the United States
Jennifer Hunter Childs
Center for Survey Measurement
Research and Methodology Directorate
U.S. Census Bureau

Acknowledgements
•  Ryan King and Aleia Clark Fobia, U.S.
Census Bureau
•  Paul Scanlon, National Center for Health
Statistics
•  Michelle Smirnova, University of Missouri,
Kansas City

Overview
•  Developing a Framework to Measure Trust
in Official Statistics
•  Qualitative Methodology and Findings
•  Quantitative Methodology and Findings
•  Implications for Building Trust
•  Time Series Analysis
•  Conclusions

Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) Working Group
•  Measure trust in official statistics
•  Produce model survey questionnaire to gather
comparable statistics internationally
•  Cognitively tested in 6 member nations (Brackfield
2011)

•  Questions are inadequately understood by U.S.
respondents (Willson 2010)

4

Trust in Statistical Products
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Accuracy
Reliability
Credibility
Objectivity
Relevance
Timeliness
Coherence
5

Trust in Statistical Institution
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Confidentiality Protected
Integrity
Openness/Transparency
Impartiality
Effective Stakeholder Management

6

OECD Model of Trust in Official Statistics

7

Qualitative Findings in US
•  Overall lack of knowledge about federal statistics
led to:
–  Shifting Interpretations
–  Not thinking about statistics
–  Interpretations limited to examples given

8

Recommendations from
Qualitative Testing
•  Define concepts up front
•  Be specific
•  Keep it simple

9

Awareness
•  Knowledge of Statistics
•  Data User
–  Found to be best predictor of question
comprehension in past cognitive testing by
NCHS

10

Trust in Statistical Products
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Accuracy
Reliability
Credibility
Objectivity
Relevance
Timeliness
Coherence
11

Trust in Statistical Institution
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Confidentiality Protected
Integrity
Objectivity/Transparency
Impartiality
Effective Stakeholder Management

12

Eurobarometer measure
Personally, how much trust do you have in the
federal statistics in the United States? Would
you say that you tend to trust federal statistics
or tend not to trust them?

Data Collection
•  Gallup Nightly Survey
–  200 responses daily
–  Subsample of National RDD Sample
–  Landline and Cellphone

•  Initial Gallup contract was 25 questions collected Feb.
2012
–  September 2013
–  19 question core, 6 rotating questions

•  Contract extension was 10 questions collected
October 2013 – March 2014
–  5 question core, 5 rotating questions

14

Quantitative Findings
•  Relationships with trust
•  Confidence in institutions

%	
  	
  who	
  Trust	
  Federal	
  Sta1s1cs	
  

Relationships between Overall
Trust and Other Measures
100	
  
90	
  
80	
  
70	
  
60	
  
50	
  
40	
  
30	
  
20	
  
10	
  
0	
  

71.9	
  

69.1	
  

59.5	
  

17	
  

Disagree	
  

24.7	
  

21.1	
  

Agree	
  

Disagree	
  

Relevance	
  of	
  Fed	
  Stats	
  

Agree	
  

Invade	
  

Respect	
  

Agencies	
  Keep	
  Data	
  
Agencies	
  and	
  Privacy	
  
ConfidenEal	
  
A4tudes	
  on	
  Other	
  Measures	
  

%	
  Who	
  Report	
  Trus1ng	
  Fed	
  Stats	
  

Effects on Trust by Data User
100	
  
90	
  
80	
  
70	
  
60	
  
50	
  
40	
  
30	
  
20	
  
10	
  
0	
  

Data	
  User	
  
Non-­‐Data	
  User	
  

Disagree	
  

Agree	
  

Disagree	
  

Agree	
  

Invade	
  

Respect	
  

Relevance	
  of	
  Fed	
  Stats	
   Agencies	
  Keep	
  Data	
   Agencies	
  and	
  Privacy	
  
ConfidenEal	
  
A4tudes	
  on	
  Other	
  Measures	
  

Relationship between Confidence in Institutions by
Knowledge of Federal Statistics
0.7	
  

Gamma	
  Correla1on	
  	
  

0.6	
  
0.5	
  

FSS	
  -­‐	
  Newspapers	
  

FSS	
  -­‐	
  Congress	
  
FSS	
  -­‐	
  UniversiEes	
  

FSS	
  -­‐	
  Newspapers	
  

FSS	
  -­‐	
  UniversiEes	
  

0.4	
  
0.3	
  

FSS	
  -­‐	
  Congress	
  
FSS	
  -­‐	
  Military	
  

0.2	
  
0.1	
  
0	
  

FSS	
  -­‐	
  Military	
  

Low	
  Knowedge	
  
High	
  Knowledge	
  

Implications for Building Trust

•  In a time when confidence in Congress is
particularly poor, increasing knowledge about
the statistical system and increasing data users
could help people differentiate between sectors
of the government, thus increasing confidence
in the FSS.
•  Overall, knowledge of the statistical system, as
well as using data, believing the data are
relevant, kept confidential and that agencies
respect privacy all correspond with increased
trust in the statistical products.

Trust

Trust Post Shutdown

Confidential

Confidential Post-Shutdown

Time Series Analysis

24

Do levels of trust change during
times of negative publicity?
October 5, 2012

June 6, 2013

May 10, 2013

October 1, 2013

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#SFBLJO%BUB$PMMFDUJPO
2013−09−15

2013−06−10

2013−05−10 *344UPSZ

0.35

2012−10−06 5XFFU	


0.40

/4"4UPSZ	


0.45

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2014−03−15

●

4IVUEPXO	


●●

2013−10−01

0.65

2012−02−15

Proportion of Population Reporting Trust in Federal Statistics

3FQPSUFE5SVTUJO'FEFSBM4UBUJTUJDT0WFS5JNF

26

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"HSFF
%JTBHSFF

●

4IVUEPXO	


●

●
●

●

2013−09−15

●

●

/4"4UPSZ	


●

●

2012−10−06

●

●

●● ●

5XFFU	


●

●

●

●
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●
●
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●
●

2013−06−10

●

*344UPSZ	


●

●

2014−03−15

●
●
●● ●

2013−05−10

●

0.6

2013−10−01

●

4IVUEPXO	


#SFBLJO%BUB$PMMFDUJPO

/4"4UPSZ	


*344UPSZ	


5XFFU	


0.7

2012−02−15

Proportion Agreen/Disagree that Federal Agencies Keep Data Confidential

#FMJFGUIBU'FEFSBM"HFODJFT,FFQ%BUB$POGJEFOUJBM0WFS5JNF

D

|

27

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4IVUEPXO	


0.4

"HSFF

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*344UPSZ

0.6

%JTBHSFF
4IVUEPXO	


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Proportion Reporting Agree/Disagree Need for Federal Statistics

3FQPSUFE#FMJFGUIBU1PMJDZ.BLFST/FFE'FEFSBM4UBUJTUJDT0WFS5JNF

28

So What?
•  Does this impact response rates?
•  Correlation DOES NOT imply causation,
but it’s something we can look at

29

Trust	
  and	
  Belief	
  in	
  ConfidenEality	
  along	
  with	
  
Survey	
  Response	
  Rates*	
  
1	
  
0.9	
  
0.8	
  
0.7	
  

Trust	
  Fed	
  Stats	
  

0.6	
  

FSAs	
  Keep	
  Data	
  ConfidenEal	
  

0.5	
  

FSAs	
  Respect	
  Privacy	
  

0.4	
  

Survey	
  1	
  RR	
  
Survey	
  2	
  RR	
  

0.3	
  

Survey	
  3	
  RR	
  

0.2	
  

Survey	
  4	
  RR	
  

2014-­‐02	
  

2014-­‐01	
  

2013-­‐12	
  

2013-­‐11	
  

2013-­‐10	
  

2013-­‐09	
  

2013-­‐08	
  

2013-­‐07	
  

2013-­‐06	
  

2013-­‐05	
  

2013-­‐04	
  

2013-­‐03	
  

2013-­‐02	
  

2013-­‐01	
  

2012-­‐12	
  

2012-­‐11	
  

2012-­‐10	
  

2012-­‐09	
  

2012-­‐08	
  

2012-­‐07	
  

2012-­‐06	
  

2012-­‐05	
  

2012-­‐04	
  

2012-­‐03	
  

0	
  

2012-­‐02	
  

0.1	
  

*Preliminary	
  unpublished	
  response	
  rates	
  

Correlations between “Trust” and Response Rates
and “Confidential” and Response Rates
Survey 1 RR
•  Trust r = 0.62 , p = 0.001
•  Confidential r = 0.70, p < 0.001
Survey 2 RR
•  Trust r = 0.74 , p < 0.001
•  Confidential r = 0.58, p = 0.002

Survey 3 RR
•  Trust r = 0.75, p < 0.001
•  Confidential r = 0.64, p < 0.001
Survey 4 RR
•  Trust r = 0.70, p<.001
•  Confidential r = 0.55, p<.01

Conclusions
•  “Breaking news” can impact how the
public views the statistical system.
•  This can impact how they view our use of
administrative records for statistical
purposes.
•  These news stories, or another
unmeasured yet related factor, seem to be
correlated with survey response rates.
32

Thank You!
Contact Information
Jennifer Hunter Childs
jennifer.hunter.childs@census.gov


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