From December 2009 through April 2010,
the Census Bureau contracted the Gallup Organization to conduct a
nightly poll of the public's opinion toward the 2010 Census, public
awareness of Census promotional efforts, and intent to mail back
their Census forms. This nationally representative,
probability-based, sample of 200 respondents per night was sampled
from random digit dialing (RDD) and cell frames, The estimates
which were based on aggregating these data over week-long time
periods, provided nearly immediate feedback on public reaction to
national events that could possibly influence response to the 2010
Census. The Census Bureau used this feedback to make communication
campaign decisions during data collection that contributed to
achieving a mail-back participation rate of 74%, despite increased
vacancy rates due to the economic downturn, increased public
skepticism about the role of the Federal Government, and a general
decline in survey response rates during the decade that crossed
both public and private sector surveys. From February 2012 through
March 2014, the Gallup Organization incorporated the Federal
Statistical System (FSS) Public Opinion questions into an ongoing
Gallup Daily Tracking Survey, under a contract with the U.S. Census
Bureau. The mission critical objective was to track public opinion
toward statistics produced by the Federal Government. During this
time, we saw a relatively stable level of trust in Federal
statistics until several events became headlines in the news,
including scandals involving the IRS and NSA and then the
Government shutdown of 2013. As these events progressed, we saw a
downturn in trust in Federal statistics, which also happened to
correlate with a decrease in response rates to several Census
Bureau surveys. It would be useful to collect additional data to
further explore these relationships. To date, the data have been
gathered nightly from small (n=200) independent cross-sectional
samples of individuals participating in a general multi-topic
Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey. We collected 200 cases
per night, leading up to 1,400 cases per week and 6,000 cases per
month, etc. The nightly sample data was aggregated over weeks or
months to examine trends in attitudes towards the FSS. The
cross-sectional design offered the opportunity to examine large
marginal shifts in attitudes on a daily basis. The cross-sectional
design precluded examination of small daily marginal changes in
attitudes, as well as any change at the individual level. Because
we did not specifically ask about potentially-influential events,
the design also limited our ability to relate very specific events
in the news, such as the IRS and NSA stories, to shifts in opinion
toward Federal statistics. The objective of the planned study is to
conduct a nationally representative sample survey of public
opinion, primarily on attitudes toward the FSS and the use of
Federal statistics. The collected data will be used to track
changes in attitudes towards the FSS and in data use. The data will
also enable the Census Bureau to assess how news events related to
the statistical system or government and public perceptions of
these events affects usage of and attitudes towards Federal
statistics. The methodology for the planned survey is very similar
to the recently-conducted FSS Public Opinion Survey (described
above), however with a smaller weekly sample with additional
questions that will allow us to examine possible predictors of
change over time. The smaller sample size makes this data
collection cheaper, and thus possible to continue this survey for a
longer period of time.
On behalf of this Federal agency, I certify that
the collection of information encompassed by this request complies
with 5 CFR 1320.9 and the related provisions of 5 CFR
1320.8(b)(3).
The following is a summary of the topics, regarding
the proposed collection of information, that the certification
covers:
(i) Why the information is being collected;
(ii) Use of information;
(iii) Burden estimate;
(iv) Nature of response (voluntary, required for a
benefit, or mandatory);
(v) Nature and extent of confidentiality; and
(vi) Need to display currently valid OMB control
number;
If you are unable to certify compliance with any of
these provisions, identify the item by leaving the box unchecked
and explain the reason in the Supporting Statement.