1024-0224 NPS Programmatic Review FLAG

OMB Control Number:

Current Expiration Date:

National Park Service

U.S. Department of the Interior

Programmatic Review and Clearance Process

for NPS-Sponsored Public Surveys

The scope of the Programmatic Review and Clearance Process for NPS-Sponsored Public Surveys is limited and will only include individual surveys of park visitors, potential park visitors, and residents of communities near parks. Use of the programmatic review will be limited to non-controversial surveys of park visitors, potential park visitors, and/or residents of communities near parks that are not likely to include topics of significant interest in the review process. Additionally, this process is limited to non-controversial information collections that do not attract attention to significant, sensitive, or political issues. Examples of significant, sensitive, or political issues include: seeking opinions regarding political figures; obtaining citizen feedback related to high-visibility or high-impact issues like the reintroduction of wolves in Yellowstone National Park, the delisting of specific Endangered Species, or drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

							Submission Date:			2/3/2017
Project Title: Visitor Use Study at the Flagstaff Area National Monuments (FLAG)
Abstract (not to exceed 150 words)
The objective of this collection is to assess current park visitor use and needs at the Flagstaff Area National Monuments (FLAG) including: Sunset Crater National Monument (SUCR), Wupatki National Monument (WUPA), and Walnut Canyon National Monument (WACA), in order to better inform and guide anticipated park planning projects and management strategies. NPS is interested in understanding the myriad of visitor uses at WACA, SUCR, and WUPA. These surveys will target responses from representative user groups to generalize to visitors at the three FLAG sites within the sampling selected window.
Principal Investigator Contact Information
Name: Megha Budruk
Title: Associate Professor
Affiliation: Arizona State University
Address: 411 N Central Ave., Phoenix, AZ 85048
Phone: (602) 496 0171 Fax: (602) 496 0953
Email: Megha.Budruk@asu.edu
Park or Program Liaison Contact Information
Name: Cecilia Shields
Title: Chief of Interpretation
Park: Flagstaff Area National Monuments Sunset Crater Volcano, Walnut Canyon, Wupatki
Address: 6400 N. Highway 89 Flagstaff, AZ 86004
Phone: (928) 526-1157 x228 (928) 699-9409 (work cell)
Email: cecilia_shields@nps.gov
	Project Information
	Where will the collection take place? (Name of NPS Site)
	Sunset Crater Volcano, Wupatki and Walnut Canyon National Monuments (Flagstaff, AZ)
	Sampling Period	Start Date: 06/01/2017				End Date: 09/30/2017
	Type of Information Collection Instrument (Check ALL that Apply)
	 Mail-Back Questionnaire		 Face-to-Face Interview						 Focus Groups
	 On-Site Questionnaire		 Telephone Survey
	 Other (list)
	Will an electronic device be used to collect information?  No  Yes - type of device ­­­­­­Electronic Tablet
	Survey Justification:
	Social science research in support of park planning and management is mandated in the NPS Management Policies 2006 (Section 8.11.1, “Social Science Studies”). The NPS pursues a policy that facilitates social science studies in support of the NPS mission to protect resources and enhance the enjoyment of present and future generations (National Park Service Act of 1916, 38 Stat 535, 16 USC 1, et seq.). NPS policy mandates that social science research will be used to provide an understanding of park visitors, the non-visiting public, gateway communities and regions, and human interactions with park resources. Such studies are needed to provide a scientific basis for park planning and development. The information collected from this survey will serve as a means to assess current visitor use and needs at three monuments within the Flagstaff Area National Monuments (FLAG): Sunset Crater National Monument (SUCR), Wupatki National Monument (WUPA), and Walnut Canyon National Monument (WACA). To date there has not been a comprehensive visitor use study of all three locations to evaluate visitor preferences and needs. While this collection will offer good baseline data, it is also necessary to replace anecdotal information about visitor’s experiences in the parks. Due to the increased visitation levels at the monuments, park managers have requested this collection in order to evaluate the potential impacts of visitor behaviors on natural and cultural resources. This will allow park managers to gain a better understanding of visitor expectations and use patterns. The study findings will be used to: update visitor demographics obtain information related visitor experience and preferences measure perceived visitor use impact on resources and public enjoyment understand visitor’s recreational behaviors and visitation patterns The collection will also serve as teaching tool for undergraduate and graduate students at Arizona State University. Park managers and planners are very interested in providing opportunities for students to conduct social science research within the park.

Survey Methodology

1. Respondent Universe:

The respondent universe for the survey consists of all adults (aged 18 and older) visiting the following locations in the FLAG area during the sampling period (June 1-September 30, 2017):

• Sunset Crater Volcano

  • Lava Flow and Lenox Crater trails

• Wupatki

  • Four pueblos and the visitor center

• Walnut Canyon

  • Rim and Island trails and visitor center (Flagstaff, AZ)

2. Sampling Plan/Procedures:

Sampling will occur over the peak use period (June-September 2017) at the three monuments to capture the high visitation period. Sampling will also occur over weekday and weekend days to reflect typical visitation patterns. The table below list visitation estimates during the 2016 summer season.

Location		Visitation Estimate 2016*
	June	July	August	September	Total
Sunset Crater Volcano	18,804	24,123	19,333	20,555	82,815
Wupatki	27,666	29,016	26,314	26,127	109,123
Walnut Canyon	16,789	16,419	12,907	13,405	59,520
Total	63,259	69,558	58,554	60,087	234,685

*Retrieved from https://irma.nps.gov/Stats/ (1/12/2017)

We will randomly intercept visitors during randomly selected blocks of time. Sampling days will be randomly stratified by day of the week and location. After the first group is selected, every n^th group or person will be selected to participate in the survey. Questionnaires will be completed on site using an electronic tablet. This process will continue each day throughout the sampling period.

Location	Number of Visitor Contacts
	June	July	August	September	TOTAL
Sunset Crater Volcano	109	140	113	120	482
Wupatki	122	129	116	115	482
Walnut Canyon	136	133	104	109	482
Total	367	402	333	344	1,446

Approximately 60% (868) of the sample will be drawn from weekend days, with an assumption of an average of 15 and 25 digitized questionnaires completed on weekdays and weekend days respectively. Thus a total of 38 sample days (20 weekday and 18 weekend days) and 3 additional days (in case of any contingencies) are planned across the high use sample period.

3. Instrument Administration:

The study will utilize a self-administered, on-site digitized questionnaire developed by Arizona State University and the NPS. The questionnaire will be administered using Qualtrics survey software installed on electronic tablets. A potential respondent for the questionnaire will be identified on-site using the introductory statement and screening question outlined at the end of this document. Once the respondent has answered the screening question and has been found to be eligible for the study, the survey administrator will provide a brief description of the study and request the visitor’s participation.

If the visitor refuses, the survey administer will ask if they would be willing to complete four short non-response questions. If the answer is again no, the survey administrator will record demographic variables and, if possible, note the reason for refusal. Visitors who accept initially will be provided an electronic tablet to complete the questionnaire, and the survey administrator will be available to answer questions. The survey administrator will collect the electronic tablet once the visitor has completed the questionnaire. Survey administrators will have two electronic tables so that multiple people can be approached at the same time. Based on the visitation rate at each monument, as well as the target number of completed questionnaires for the day, we will estimate time intervals for each initial contact.

Survey administrators will be trained by the Principal Investigator in cooperation with NPS staff from FLAG. Interviewer will be trained on every aspect of on-site surveying including: using sampling intervals, avoiding sampling bias, and how to handle all types of interviewing situations, especially safety of the visitors and the interviewers. Quality control will be ensured by monitoring interviewers in the field, and by checking their paperwork at the end of each survey day

(d) Expected Response Rate/Confidence Levels:

A total of 1,446 visitors will be contacted during the sampling periods (Sunset Crater n=482, Wupakti n=482, and Walnut Canyon n=482). We estimate that 1,155 (80%) visitors will agree on-site to participate in the questionnaire. This estimate is based on previous literature as well as the response rates from other similar surveys. The number of refusals will be recorded and reported in a survey log, and will be used in calculating the response rate. Based on the survey sample size, there will be 95% confidence that the survey findings will be accurate to within 5 percentage points.

Location	Number of Initial Contacts	Expected Response Rate	Expected Number of Responses	Margin of Error +/- %	Confidence Level
Sunset Crater Volcano	482	80%	385	5	95%
Wupatki	482	80%	385	5	95%
Walnut Canyon	482	80%	385	5	95%
Total	1,446		1,155

5. Strategies for dealing with potential non-response bias:

To assess potential non-response bias, visitors will be asked:

• if they have visited the monument before

• state of residence

• how long they spent in the monument that day

• their primary activity during their visit that day.

Gender and other information (i.e., location of contact, group size, and comments regarding reason for refusal) will be noted by the survey administrators. If visitors refuse to answer the questions about their visit and residence, technicians will simply record demographic variables in the on-site contact log. Subsequently, analyses will be performed to determine if respondents differ significantly from non-respondents.

5. Description of any pre-testing and peer review of the methods and/or instrument (recommended):

The survey methods and instrument have undergone review by: park staff, members of the Social Science Program, NPS, Visitor Use Statistics Program, and faculty members from the ASU School of Community Resources and Development. One outcome of the peer review was to confirm that Q2 of the survey was sufficient to determine visitor counts. Another outcome was to ensure the inclusion of programs and facilities that were of relevance to the park managers, both currently and in the future. In addition, it identified and resolved issues with accurate and appropriate wording for multiple questions. Finally, the questionnaire was pre-tested to determine the average completion time.

Burden Estimates

Overall, we anticipate that a total of 1,446 individuals will be approached during the sample period. Among the 1,446 individuals we expect that 1,155 (80%) will agree to participate and complete the questionnaire while on site.

We expect the initial on-site contact time will be at least two minutes per person (1,446 X 2 minutes = 48.2 hours). During the initial contact each person that refuses to answer the complete questionnaire will be asked to answer the four non-response questions listed above in section (e). We estimate that 291 visitors will agree to answer the non-response questions which will take no more than two minutes 291x2 minutes=10 hours).

Based upon our expected response rates, we expect to receive total of 1,155 completed surveys for this collection, with that, an additional 15 minutes will be required to complete and return the questionnaire while on-site (1,155 responses x 15 minutes = 289 hours).

The total burden for this collection is estimated to be 347 hours. This includes the times to complete the initial contact, non-response questionnaire and the electronic questionnaire.

Estimated Total Number of Respondents

Estimation of Time (minutes)

Estimation of Burden (hours)

Initial Contacts

1,446

Initial Contact

2

Initial Contact

48

On-site Refusal/ nonresponse questionnaire

291

On-site Refusal/ nonresponse questionnaire

2

On-site Refusal/ nonresponse questionnaire

10

Complete Surveys

1,155

To complete response

15

To complete response

289

Total

Total

347

Reporting Plan

The PI will prepare a brief report abstract suitable for public distribution. The final technical report, with data analysis, conclusions and recommendations will be prepared and distributed to the following: an electronic version (in PDF file format) and two hard copies for the NPS CPCESU Research Coordinator at Northern Arizona University. One electronic version and two hard copies of the final report will be provided to the Superintendent of SUCR, WUPA and WACA National Monuments. One electronic version and two hard copies of the final report will be provided to the NPS Social Science Program for inclusion in the Social Science Studies Collection.

Introductory statement and screening question to invite visitors to participate in the on-site survey:

Introductory Statement

“Hello! Welcome to […] National Monument. My name is […]. I am a student from Arizona State University conducting a survey about the national monument. This survey is a joint research project between Arizona State University and the National Park Service; the purpose is to learn visitors’ opinions about the national monument’s programs, facilities, and services.

[Screening Question]

What is the purpose of this trip?

□ Visit the Park □ Research, Commercial Services (Guides, etc.)

□ Park/Concession Employee □ Park Business

□ Just Passing Through □ Other (list): ___________________________

“Visit the Park” would be a recreation visit and would continue with survey (note on log book).

“Research”, “Commercial Services” would be a non-recreation visit and would continue with survey (need to know time spent in park) (note on log book).

In the case of “Park/Concession Employee”, “Park Business” or “Just Passing Through” there would be no need to continue the survey – no need to note on log book.

Continuation of invitation

We are only talking with a small number of visitors, so your participation would be greatly appreciated. The questions I would like to ask will take about 15 minutes. All of your answers are voluntary.

Would you be willing to participate in a short survey?

If no, ask the visitor if he/she would be willing to complete three short non-response questions. If yes, ask if they have visited the monument before and what their state of residence is. Gender and other observational information (i.e., location of contact, group size, and comments regarding reason for refusal) should be noted by research technicians. If no to the three questions, thank the visitor; stop the interview, and record observational information on log sheet.

If yes, confirm that visitor is at least 18 years old, record observational information on

log sheet, and continue with the interview.

The Paperwork Reduction Act requires approval of all federal government surveys by the

Office of Management and Budget. This survey has been approved under this Act. The

Office of Management and Budget control number and expiration date is available at

your request. Additional information about this survey and its approval is available at

your request.*

*Additional Information Provided upon Request.

OMB Approval number: (Not yet assigned)

Expiration Date: (Not yet assigned)

Person Collecting and Analyzing Information: Megha Budruk

School of Community Resources and Development

Arizona State University

411 N. Central Ave.,

Phoenix, AZ 85048

16 U.S.C. 1a-7 authorizes collection of this information. This information will be used by park managers to better serve the public. Response to this request is voluntary. No action may be taken against you for refusing to supply the information requested. No personal data will be recorded.

You may direct comments on the number of minutes required to respond, or on any other aspect of this survey to:

Cecilia Shields, Chief of Interpretation

Flagstaff Area National Monuments

Sunset Crater Volcano, Wupatki, Walnut Canyon

6400 N. Highway 89

Flagstaff, AZ 86004

(928) 526 1157 x 228; Cecilia_shields@nps.gov