Turkey Hatchery - Release

Turkey Hatchery
ISSN: 1949-1964

Released October 15, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department
of Agriculture (USDA).

Eggs in Incubators on October 1 Down 13 Percent from Last Year
Turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2015, in the United States totaled 24.3 million, down 13 percent from
October 1, 2014. Eggs in incubators were up 2 percent from the September 1, 2015 total of 23.8 million eggs.

Poults Hatched During September Down 14 Percent from Last Year
Turkey poults hatched during September 2015, in the United States totaled 19.6 million, down 14 percent from
September 2014. Poults hatched were down 11 percent from the August 2015 total of 22.0 million poults.

Net Poults Placed During September Down 8 Percent from Last Year
The 19.4 million net poults placed during September 2015 in the United States were down 8 percent from the number
placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 11 percent from the August 2015 total of
21.9 million.

Net Poult Placements – United States
Million poults
25
24

23
22
21
20
2014

2015

19
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month – United States: 2014-2016
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Month

September ..............................
October ...................................
November ...............................
December ...............................
January ...................................
February .................................
March ......................................
April ........................................
May .........................................
June ........................................
July .........................................
August ....................................

Eggs in incubators
first of month
2014-2015

2015-2016

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 eggs)

(1,000 eggs)

(percent)

27,388
27,842
28,004
28,964
29,281
27,144
28,250
28,799
26,845
27,232
27,357
27,046

23,796
24,346

Poults hatched
entire month
2014-2015

2015-2016

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

87
87

22,844
23,744
21,936
24,660
24,023
21,721
24,179
23,261
22,161
23,129
22,966
22,008

19,550

86

Net Poult Placements by Month – United States: 2014-2016
[Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Total all
breeds
2014-2015

2015-2016

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

Month

September ..............................
October ...................................
November ...............................
December ...............................
January ...................................
February .................................
March ......................................
April ........................................
May .........................................
June ........................................
July .........................................
August ....................................

2

21,169
21,695
20,379
22,516
22,383
20,119
21,885
21,851
21,329
23,014
22,776
21,864

19,381

Cumulative
total

92

2014-2015

2015-2016

Percent of
previous
year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

21,169
42,864
63,243
85,759
108,142
128,261
150,146
171,997
193,326
216,340
239,116
260,980

19,381

92

Turkey Hatchery (October 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS
field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists.
Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults
annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via
mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to
ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.
Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data
are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends
from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS
field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State
estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of
hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.
Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey
Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available
for slaughter during the calendar year.
States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are
published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production Annual Summary report in April.
Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no
sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. While the affects of these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized
through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for
consistency and reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected
items in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past performance and is
computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for turkey eggs in
incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 24.3 million eggs by more than 1.3 percent. Chances
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent.

Reliability of October Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Months
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)

Eggs in incubators ......................................

1.3

2.3

227

5

1,221

18

6

Poults hatched ............................................

0.5

0.8

84

0

211

10

13

Net poult placements ..................................

1.5

2.5

263

11

659

8

16

Turkey Hatchery (October 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................................................................... (202) 720-4447
Alissa Cowell-Mytar – Cold Storage ........................................................................................................ (202) 720-4751
Aaron Cosgrove – Egg Products, Poultry Slaughter, Trout Production ................................................... (202) 690-3237
Heidi Gleich – Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ................................................................................ (202) 720-0585
Tom Kruchten – Census of Aquaculture .................................................................................................. (202) 690-4870
Kim Linonis – Layers, Eggs ..................................................................................................................... (202) 690-8632
Sammy Neal – Catfish Production, Mink, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ......................................... (202) 720-3244
Joshua O’Rear – Honey ............................................................................................................................ (202) 690-3676

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For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540,
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.

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