Milk Production - Release

Milk Production
ISSN: 1949-1557

Released November 18, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

October Milk Production up 2.5 Percent
Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 15.2 billion pounds, up 2.5 percent from October 2010.
September revised production at 14.8 billion pounds, was up 1.9 percent from September 2010. The September revision
represented a decrease of 10 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.
Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,787 pounds for October, 20 pounds above October 2010.
The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.48 million head, 111,000 head more than October 2010,
and 10,000 head more than September 2011.

Monthly Milk Production – 23 Selected States
Million pounds
16,500
16,000
15,500
15,000
14,500
2010

2011

14,000
13,500
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – United States: 2010-2011
[May not add due to rounding]
Milk cows 1
Quarter

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2010

2011

2010

2011

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

January-March ................
April-June .......................
July-September ...............
October-December .........

9,093
9,119
9,126
9,130

Annual ............................

9,117

9,165
9,198
9,209

5,212
5,462
5,267
5,208

2010

2011

(million pounds) (million pounds)

5,283
5,483
5,290

47,392
49,809
48,070
47,548

21,149

Change
from
2010
(percent)

48,421
50,432
48,715

2.2
1.3
1.3

192,819

1

Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production by Month – 23 Selected States: 2010-2011
Milk cows 1
Month

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Change
from
2010

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

(percent)

14,839
13,670
15,389
15,213
15,804
15,186
15,316
14,998
14,481
14,796
14,421
15,025

15,213
13,987
15,757
15,471
16,063
15,389
15,400
15,347
14,750
15,161

January ..............
February ............
March .................
April ...................
May ....................
June ...................
July ....................
August ...............
September .........
October ..............
November ..........
December ..........

8,319
8,323
8,329
8,337
8,347
8,356
8,375
8,369
8,371
8,372
8,373
8,387

Annual ...............

8,355

8,404
8,405
8,426
8,435
8,451
8,460
8,468
8,471
8,473
8,483

1,784
1,642
1,848
1,825
1,893
1,817
1,829
1,792
1,730
1,767
1,722
1,791

1,810
1,664
1,870
1,834
1,901
1,819
1,819
1,812
1,741
1,787

21,440

2.5
2.3
2.4
1.7
1.6
1.3
0.5
2.3
1.9
2.5

179,138

1

Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month – United States: 2010-2011
Milk cows 1
Month

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Change
from
2010

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

(percent)

16,020
14,758
16,614
16,416
17,040
16,353
16,436
16,094
15,540
15,900
15,498
16,150

16,385
15,065
16,971
16,643
17,266
16,523
16,490
16,432
15,793
16,230

January ..............
February ............
March .................
April ...................
May ....................
June ...................
July ....................
August ...............
September .........
October ..............
November ..........
December ..........

9,089
9,092
9,099
9,108
9,119
9,129
9,135
9,123
9,121
9,123
9,125
9,141

Annual ...............

9,117

9,158
9,158
9,178
9,185
9,200
9,208
9,208
9,209
9,210
9,219

1,763
1,623
1,826
1,802
1,869
1,791
1,799
1,764
1,704
1,743
1,698
1,767
21,149

1,789
1,645
1,849
1,812
1,877
1,794
1,791
1,784
1,715
1,760

2.3
2.1
2.1
1.4
1.3
1.0
0.3
2.1
1.6
2.1

192,819

1

Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

2

Milk Production (November 2011)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Milk Cows and Production – 23 Selected States: October 2010 and 2011
Milk cows 1
State

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

Change
from
2010

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

Arizona ..........................
California .......................
Colorado ........................
Florida ...........................
Idaho .............................
Illinois ............................
Indiana ..........................
Iowa ...............................
Kansas ..........................
Michigan ........................

183
1,752
122
114
572
98
169
204
121
360

192
1,779
131
120
582
98
171
199
124
369

1,825
1,910
1,975
1,335
1,930
1,560
1,670
1,725
1,750
1,915

1,865
1,925
1,955
1,365
1,930
1,600
1,710
1,805
1,775
1,925

334
3,346
241
152
1,104
153
282
352
212
689

358
3,425
256
164
1,123
157
292
359
220
710

(percent)
7.2
2.4
6.2
7.9
1.7
2.6
3.5
2.0
3.8
3.0

Minnesota ......................
Missouri .........................
New Mexico ...................
New York .......................
Ohio ...............................
Oregon ..........................
Pennsylvania .................
Texas ............................
Utah ...............................
Vermont .........................

470
97
318
611
270
121
541
415
85
136

471
95
332
610
268
122
538
435
87
134

1,560
1,180
2,055
1,725
1,600
1,690
1,640
1,775
1,790
1,520

1,555
1,180
2,100
1,725
1,600
1,690
1,620
1,860
1,800
1,560

733
114
653
1,054
432
204
887
737
152
207

732
112
697
1,052
429
206
872
809
157
209

-0.1
-1.8
6.7
-0.2
-0.7
1.0
-1.7
9.8
3.3
1.0

Virginia ..........................
Washington ...................
Wisconsin ......................

95
254
1,264

96
266
1,264

1,465
1,950
1,680

1,435
1,965
1,710

139
495
2,124

138
523
2,161

-0.7
5.7
1.7

23-State Total ................

8,372

8,483

1,767

1,787

14,796

15,161

2.5

1

Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Monthly Milk per Cow – 23 Selected States
Pounds
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
1,750
1,700

2010

2011

1,650
1,600
Jan

Feb

Mar

Milk Production (November 2011)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

3

Milk Cows and Production – 23 Selected States: September 2010 and 2011
Milk cows 1
State

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2010

2011

2010

2011

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

2010

Change
from
2010

2011

(million pounds) (million pounds)

(percent)

Arizona .........................
California ......................
Colorado .......................
Florida ...........................
Idaho .............................
Illinois ............................
Indiana ..........................
Iowa ..............................
Kansas ..........................
Michigan .......................

182
1,752
122
113
571
99
169
205
121
359

189
1,778
130
119
582
98
171
198
124
369

1,750
1,880
1,945
1,255
1,900
1,485
1,610
1,670
1,685
1,885

1,765
1,865
1,930
1,300
1,920
1,520
1,645
1,750
1,710
1,870

319
3,294
237
142
1,085
147
272
342
204
677

334
3,316
251
155
1,117
149
281
347
212
690

4.7
0.7
5.9
9.2
2.9
1.4
3.3
1.5
3.9
1.9

Minnesota .....................
Missouri ........................
New Mexico ..................
New York ......................
Ohio ..............................
Oregon ..........................
Pennsylvania ................
Texas ............................
Utah ..............................
Vermont ........................

470
98
318
611
270
121
542
415
85
136

471
95
331
610
268
122
537
435
87
134

1,530
1,125
2,015
1,695
1,560
1,660
1,600
1,695
1,770
1,485

1,505
1,110
2,020
1,700
1,550
1,680
1,590
1,780
1,760
1,515

719
110
641
1,036
421
201
867
703
150
202

709
105
669
1,037
415
205
854
774
153
203

-1.4
-4.5
4.4
0.1
-1.4
2.0
-1.5
10.1
2.0
0.5

Virginia ..........................
Washington ...................
Wisconsin .....................

95
253
1,264

96
265
1,264

1,430
1,935
1,650

1,405
1,945
1,680

136
490
2,086

135
515
2,124

-0.7
5.1
1.8

23-State Total ...............

8,371

8,473

1,730

1,741

14,481

14,750

1.9

1
2

Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Monthly Milk Cows – 23 Selected States
Thousand head
8,500
8,480
8,460
8,440
8,420
8,400
8,380
8,360
8,340
8,320
8,300
Jan

4

2010

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

2011

Oct

Nov

Dec

Milk Production (November 2011)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers.
Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a
sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to
obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail
response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly survey, to
estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of
milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys.
Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic
trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board
for reasonableness.
Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for
monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis
for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to
revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary,
a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are
minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data
for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for
selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is
computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow
inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate
will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.48 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10
that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent.

Milk Production (November 2011)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

5

Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Months
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)

Milk production ...............................

0.2

0.3

20

0

63

14

9

All milk cows ..................................

0.1

0.1

4

0

15

19

2

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ............................................................................................................. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Dairy Products Prices ..................................................................................................... (202) 690-2168
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter ................................................................................................ (515) 284-4340
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ................................................................................................................. (202) 720-3106
Jason Hardegree – Cattle, Cattle on Feed ................................................................................................. (202) 720-3040
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows ....................................................................................... (202) 720-3278
Everett Olbert – Dairy Products Prices ...................................................................................................... (202) 720-4751
Lorie Warren – Dairy Products ................................................................................................................. (202) 690-3236

6

Milk Production (November 2011)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

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