Part A - June Supporting Statement

7

SUPPORTING STATEMENT

U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Census Bureau

June Fertility Supplement

OMB Control Number 0607 - 0610

A. JUSTIFICATION

1. Necessity of the Information Collection

The purpose of this request for review is to obtain clearance for the supplemental inquiry concerning fertility to be conducted biennially

in conjunction with the June Current Population Survey (CPS).

This supplement is sponsored by the U.S Census Bureau. The collection of these data is authorized under Title 13, United States Code, Section 182.

The 2012 June Fertility supplement, as it will appear in the CPS instrument, is shown in Attachment A. This year, the 2012 Fertility Supplement will ask fertility questions (Items SF1 and SF2) and questions on marital and cohabitation status (SF3a and SF3b) of females 15-50 years of age. This change is designed to provide additional information about mothers’ living arrangements at the time of the first birth. The June Fertility Supplements, June 2010 and 2008, both asked women about the birth of the last child, which differ from the June 1998 and the June 1995 supplements because they only included fertility items (see Attachments G1- G3). The 1998 supplement contained fertility and birth expectations items. The 1995 supplement contained fertility and marital history items.

2. Needs and Uses

The data collected from this supplement are used primarily by government and private analysts to project future population growth, to analyze childbearing patterns, and to assist policymakers in making decisions that are affected by changes in family size and composition. Past studies have documented profound changes to historical patterns that have occurred in fertility rates, family structures, premarital births, and the timing of the first birth. The data collected from the new questions will be used by government and private analysts to analyze mother’s living situations at the time of the first birth; the data will also fill a need for information that is not available in other Census Bureau surveys.

The CPS characteristics, such as family income, household relationships, and labor force status, when matched with fertility data, can produce estimates of potential needs families may have for governmental assistance; for example, aid to families with dependent children, childcare, and maternal health care for single-parent households. The fertility data also assist researchers and analysts who explore such important issues as premarital childbearing and postponement of childbirth because of educational or occupational responsibilities and goals. As a result of the rapid changes in the economy, the June Fertility supplement offers analysts with a key indicator of family economic resources, namely, the employment status of women with infant children.

Item SF1 establishes the number of children ever born, and Item SF2 asks what year the first child was born. Fertility Items SF1 and SF2 have been a part of the June CPS Supplement annually or on a regular basis for over 40 years.

Discontinuance of the Fertility Supplement would interrupt a data series, which is built upon previous surveys first collected in June 1971. Without current fertility data, data for the most recent female cohorts (age 18-24) would be missing in fertility projections. The statistics and projections from these data are useful for legislators in the public sector and businesses that make policy and resource decisions about childcare, development, and changes in family life.

Information quality is an integral part of the pre-dissemination review of information disseminated by the Census Bureau (fully described in the Census Bureau’s Information Quality Guidelines). Information quality is also integral to information collections conducted by the Census Bureau and is incorporated into the clearance process required by the Paperwork Reduction Act.

3. Use of Information Technology

Since January 1984, we have collected the CPS data using computer-assisted interviewing. We designed the supplemental questions to obtain the required information with minimal respondent burden. The proposed items and interviewer procedures were developed over years of consultation among the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and other government agencies. The use of computer-assisted personal and telephone interviewing is deemed the most appropriate collection methodology given existing available information technology.

4. Efforts to Identify Duplication

The Census Bureau has consulted with other government agencies, such as the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), and has investigated other Census Bureau surveys and determined that the data in this supplement are not collected in any other survey that could provide the user with comparable accuracy in detailed fertility patterns. Refer to Attachments B1, B2, B3 for reports related to the accuracy and reliability of the CPS data on fertility.

The American Community Survey (ACS), in an effort to reduce respondent burden, contains one fertility question which asks the year of the last birth as compared to the 2008 and 2010 CPS June Fertility Supplements. This provides needed data at state and local levels for planning purposes for examining the potential needs of mothers with newborns. However, the absence of a question on children ever born on the ACS, means that we do not know parity of the birth--i.e., whether it was a first birth or higher order birth. In addition, the June Fertility Supplement can provide analysts with the ability to track childlessness over time which provides one with an important measure of how family life has changed and the how the needed resources of families differ by the childbearing experience of American women. The American Community Survey cannot provide these data.

The 2012 June Fertility Supplement begins with two birth-related items: first a question on how many children a woman has ever had, second the year of the first birth, followed by items on marital and cohabitation status (see Attachments G1, G2, G3). Since the 2010 June Fertility Supplement, similar estimates of births in the last year as in the ACS (i.e., births that have occurred since the previous June), provided us with the birth order of the child and a duration specific estimate of when the woman last had a birth. In the June 2008 report (Attachment B3), the month and year of birth item--which serves as both a birth in last year and an abbreviated "fertility history" indicator--permitted us to examine labor force patterns of women who had a birth in the last 12 months (see pages 13-14) and were in the labor force (see figure 6).

The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) collects data on fertility; however, because of the infrequency in data collection periods, relatively high standard errors of the estimates, and the small SIPP sample size, these data are not sufficiently reliable to produce annual estimates. The CPS Fertility Supplement is the only source of data that provides a comprehensive set of historical analysis as described in item 2.

Data on the profile of mothers with newborns enhance the overall statistical system of the federal government by providing much needed information on these mothers that is not available from vital income statistics estimates, which do not contain detailed socioeconomic items on the birth certificates such as income and labor force characteristics. Refer to Attachments B1 and B2 for a comparison between the CPS and the SIPP fertility data. The National Survey of Family Growth, conducted by the NCHS, collected data on fertility history in 1995 with a sample size one-third the size of the CPS. Again, due to the small sample, this survey cannot be compared to the CPS Fertility Supplement.

5. Efforts to Minimize Burden on Small Business

The collection of fertility information does not involve small businesses or other small entities.

6. Consequences of Less Frequent Collection

The June Fertility Supplement is conducted to determine current fertility rates for women in different socioeconomic groups and to project future population growth. If the collection of information was conducted less frequently, the fertility data would not be sufficiently monitored to measure accurately fertility events of women as they enter the ages when marriage and childbearing typically begin. Less frequent reporting would result in a distortion of segments of the population whose fertility backgrounds change most rapidly.

In addition, there would be no consistent measure of fertility characteristics of women who are graduating from school and entering the labor force.

7. Special Circumstances

There are no special circumstances. We collect the CPS data in a manner that is consistent with the OMB guidelines.

8. Consultations Outside the Agency

The following people have been in frequent consultation since October 1997 concerning the development of this supplement:

Jeffery Evans Lynne Casper

NICHD University of Southern Calf.

6100 Executive Blvd Dept of Sociology

Room 8B13 3620 Vermont Avenue

Bethesda, MD 20892 Kaprielian Hall, Room 352

Los Angeles, CA 90089-2539

Stephanie Ventura

National Center for Health

Statistics, Div. of Vital Statistics

3311 Toledo Road, Room 7418

Hyattsville, MD 20782

The result of these consultations is the final set of questions. In addition, a statement soliciting comments for improving the CPS data is prominently

placed in all the Census Bureau publications that cite the CPS data.

We include a similar statement in the technical documentation that accompanies the microdata files. Finally, we published a notice of our intent to ask the fertility questions in the December 5, 2011, edition of the Federal Register (see Vol. 76 pg 75869). We received one comment, which we deemed irrelevant to the collection. The CPS advance letter (see attachment D) provides respondents with an address at the Census Bureau to which they can submit general comments on the survey and specifically those comments regarding respondent burden.

9. Paying Respondents

The Census Bureau does not make any payments or provide any gifts to individuals participating in the CPS.

10. Assurance of Confidentiality

The Census Bureau will collect the Fertility Supplement data in compliance with the Privacy Act of 1974 and the OMB Circular A-130. Each sample household receives an advance letter approximately one week before the start of the initial CPS interview (see Attachment D). The letter includes the information required by the Privacy Act of 1974, explains the voluntary nature of the survey, and states the estimated time required for participating in the survey. Interviewers must ask if the respondent received the letter and, if not, provide a copy and allow the respondent sufficient time to read the contents. Also, interviewers provide households with the pamphlet The U.S. Census Bureau Respects Your Privacy and Protects Your Personal Information, which further states the confidentiality assurances associated with this data collection effort and the Census Bureau's past performance in assuring confidentiality (see Attachment C). All information given by respondents to Census Bureau employees is held in strict confidence under Title 13, United States Code, Section 9. Every Census Bureau employee has taken an oath to that effect and is subject to a jail penalty or substantial fine if they disclose any information given to them.

11. Justification for Sensitive Questions

The June Fertility Supplement does not include any questions of a sensitive nature.

12. Estimate of Hour Burden

The estimated respondent burden is 500 hours. This is based on an average one-minute interview for each of the 30,000 women in the supplement universe. This estimate was based on the time testing of the new questions of the 2012 Fertility Supplement.

The actual respondent burden is dependent upon the size of the household and the characteristics of its occupants. One respondent answers for the entire household.

13. Estimate of Cost Burden

There are no costs to respondents other than that of their time to respond.

14. Cost to Federal Government

The estimated cost to the government for the CPS program is $92 million in FY 2012. The costs are to be borne by the Census Bureau, the BLS, and other government agencies, if involved. We estimate the cost of the supplement on fertility to be $142,000, all in FY 2012.

15. Reasons for Change in Burden

The change in the burden is as a result of the additional questions and the

change in the universe of women.

16. Project Schedule

The June CPS, of which this supplement is a part, will be conducted during the week of CPS interviewing. Processing of this supplement will commence in July. The public use file will be released in the spring of 2013. Final reports will follow late that same year.

17. Request to Not Display Expiration Date

The June Supplement is administered as part of the CPS monthly interview. However, this supplement (as well as all the CPS supplements) bears an OMB control number and expiration date which is different from the basic CPS interview. The OMB control number and expiration date for the CPS basic interview is included in the advance letter we give respondents (see Attachment D). Because of these difficulties and anticipated respondent confusion involved with expressing a separate control number and expiration date to respondents for the supplement questions, we do not wish to display the OMB control number and expiration date for the CPS June Supplement.

18. Exceptions to the Certification

There are no exceptions to the certification.