Supporting Statement A -MRTS Final

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SUPPORTING STATEMENT
U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Census Bureau
Monthly Retail Trade Survey
OMB Control No. 0607-0717
Part A.
1.

Justification

Necessity of the Information Collection
This request is for approval of an extension to the Monthly Retail Trade Survey.
The Monthly Retail Trade Survey provides estimates of monthly retail sales, endof-month merchandise inventories, and quarterly e-commerce sales of retailers in
the United States. In addition, the survey also provides an estimate of monthly
sales at food service establishments and drinking places.
Sales and inventories data provide a current statistical picture of the retail portion
of consumer activity. The sales and inventories estimates in the Monthly Retail
Trade Survey measure current trends of economic activity that occur in the United
States. The survey estimates provide valuable information for economic policy
decisions and actions by the government and are widely used by private
businesses, trade organizations, professional associations, and others for market
research and analysis. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses these data
in determining the consumption portion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Retail and Food Services Sales during 2009 amounted to $3.7 trillion. The
estimates produced in the Monthly Retail Trade Survey are critical to the accurate
measurement of total economic activity. The estimates of retail sales represent all
operating receipts, including receipts from wholesale sales made at retail locations
and services rendered as part of the sale of the goods, by businesses that primarily
sell at retail. The sales estimates include sales made on credit as well as on a cash
basis, but exclude receipts from sales taxes and interest charges from credit sales.
Also excluded is non-operating income from such services as investments and
real estate.
The estimates of merchandise inventories owned by retailers represent all
merchandise located in retail stores, warehouses, offices, or in transit for
distribution to retail establishments. The estimates of merchandise inventories
exclude fixtures and supplies not held for sale, as well as merchandise held on
consignment owned by others. BEA uses inventories data to determine the
investment portion of the GDP.
Retail e-commerce sales are estimated from the same sample used in the Monthly
Retail Trade Survey to estimate preliminary and final U.S. retail sales. The

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Monthly Retail Trade sample is updated on an ongoing basis to account for new
retail employer businesses (including those selling via the Internet), business
deaths, and other changes to the retail business universe. Research was conducted
to ensure that retail firms selected in the Monthly Retail Trade Survey sample
engaged in e-commerce are representative of the universe of e-commerce
retailers. Total e-commerce sales for 2009 were estimated at $205 billion.
We publish retail sales and inventories estimates based on the North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS).
The U. S. Census Bureau conducts this voluntary survey under the authority of
Title 13, Section 182 of the United States Code.
Listed below are the retail form numbers and a description of each form:
Series
SM-44(06)S
SM-44(06)SE
SM-44(06)SS

Description
Non Department Store/Sales Only/WO E-Commerce
Non Department Store/Sales Only W E-Commerce
Non Department Store/Sales Only/Screener

SM-44(06)B
SM-44(06)BE
SM-44(06)BS

Non Department Store/Sales and Inventory/WO E-Comm.
Non Department Store/Sales and Inventory/ W E-Comm.
Non Department Store/Sales and Inventory/Screener

SM-45(06)S
SM-45(06)SE
SM-45(06)SS

Department Store/Sales Only/WO E-Commerce
Department Store/Sales Only/W E-Commerce
Department Store/Sales Only/Screener

SM-45(06)B
SM-45(06)BE
SM-45(06)BS

Department Store/Sales and Inventory/WO E-Commerce
Department Store/Sales and Inventory/W E-Commerce
Department Store/Sales and Inventory/Screener

SM-72(06)S

Food Services/Sales Only/WO E-Commerce

SM-20(06)I

Non Department and Department Store/Inventory Only

2.

Needs and Uses
BEA is the primary Federal user of data collected in the Monthly Retail Trade
Survey. BEA uses the information in its preparation of the National Income and
Products Accounts, and its benchmark and annual input-output tables. Statistics
provided from retail sales and inventories estimates are used in the calculation of
GDP. If the survey were not conducted, BEA would lack comprehensive data
from the retail sector. This would adversely affect the reliability of the National
Income and Products Accounts and the GDP.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses the data as input to their Producer
Price Indexes and in developing productivity measurements. The data are also
used for gauging current economic trends of the economy. Private businesses use
the retail sales and inventories data to compute business activity indexes. The
private sector also uses retail sales as a reliable indicator of consumer activity.
Information quality reviews are an integral part of the pre-dissemination review of
the information disseminated by the Census Bureau (fully described in the Census
Bureau’s Information Quality Guidelines). Information quality reviews are also
integral to the information collections conducted by the Census Bureau and are
part of the clearance process that is required by the Paperwork Reduction Act.
3.

Use of Information Technology
An automated system for check-in of returned forms allows for timely
identification of completed questionnaires and removal from the delinquent
workload. The automated telephone follow-up call scheduling system considers
when data are typically available and reduces the number of telephone calls to
respondents.
A 24-hour facsimile machine connected to a toll-free telephone line permits
respondents to FAX data to our collection facility in Jeffersonville, Indiana. This
process expedites the receipt of questionnaires, thus decreasing the number of
telephone follow-up inquiries. Reminders are sent by FAX to companies that do
not initially reply. Approximately 44% of forms sent by FAX are received back
via FAX each month, with reported data.

4.

Efforts to Identify Duplication
Research with other governmental agencies, trade associations and other data
users (both government and private sector) via telephone conversations, meetings,
trade journal articles, and written correspondence indicates that these data are not
available from other sources on an ongoing basis.
Annual sales and inventories by retailers are collected in the Annual Retail Trade
Survey, (OMB Approval # 0607-0013), and retail sales are collected in the
quinquennial Census of Retail Trade. While the annual and quinquennial census
data provide levels of sales for retail trade, they do not provide data with the
frequency needed to monitor the current state of the economy.
Sales data are also collected in the Advance Monthly Retail Sales Survey (OMB
Approval # 0607-0104). The advance sales estimates are based on early reporting
of sales by a subsample of firms in the Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Because of
the early reporting, the advance estimates can differ from the Monthly Retail
Trade Survey estimates, which are based on later reporting.

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5.

Minimizing Burden
The Census Bureau developed a program that transfers data between the Advance
Monthly Retail Sales Survey and the Monthly Retail Trade Survey.
Approximately 5,000 firms are canvassed in the Advance Monthly Retail Sales
Survey. About 2,700 cases consistently respond and data are transferred from the
Advance Monthly Retail Sales Survey to the Monthly Retail Trade Survey.
The Census Bureau accepts data prepared on a company’s own form. This
relieves the respondent of the burden of posting data to a report form.
The stratified random sample design used in the Monthly Retail Trade Survey
(MRTS) uses the least number of sampling units required to produce national
level estimates with the desired level of reliability, thus minimizing respondent
burden. Sales data are requested from the largest retail firms and from a sample
of small and medium-sized firms. The selection of a new sample every five years
replaces about 97 percent of the small and medium-sized firms that participate in
the survey, thus minimizing respondent burden by redistributing reporting burden.
Furthermore, firms are not required to maintain additional records. The data
requested are generally maintained in existing company records. Carefully
prepared estimates are acceptable if book figures are not available. Finally,
interviewers use computers with on-line edits of response data to conduct followup and delinquent interviews, thus reducing the number of callbacks to
respondents.

6.

Consequences of Less Frequent Collection
Estimates from MRTS are used extensively by government and private
economists and others to evaluate current economic conditions. The monthly
retail sales and inventories estimates are important economic indicators and
provide timely input for BEA’s computation of the National Income and Product
Accounts. Less frequent data collection would create a serious gap in the
economic information available to evaluate current economic conditions and to
formulate economic policy.

7.

Special Circumstances
Because the survey is vitally important in determining monthly changes in sales,
inventories, and quarterly e-commerce, respondents are selected to report on a
monthly basis. Data collected contribute to the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail
and Food Services as well as the Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales
economic indicators. The data we collect in this survey are normally maintained
on a monthly basis by respondents. Because the timeliness of the MRTS is
critical to its value, respondents are asked to return completed questionnaires
within eight business days of receipt of the form.

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8.

Consultations Outside the Agency
A pre-submission notice was placed in the Federal Register on January 7, 2011 on
page 1131, inviting the general public and other Federal agencies to comment on
the information collection. We received three comments.
BEA is the Census Bureau’s main source of consultation on items on the Monthly
Retail Trade Survey and general survey content. Dennis J. Fixler, Chief
Statistician at BEA provided supportive comments for MRTS. Dr. Fixler said
“The data collected from this survey are crucial to key components of BEA’s
economic statistics.” He noted that data from MRTS are used to prepare the
national income and product accounts (NIPAs), the industry input-output (I-O),
and GDP-by-industry accounts.
Additionally, Dr. Christopher Carroll, a former senior economist at the Council of
Economic Advisers (CEA), responded with comments of support that highlighted
the substantial role that the Monthly Retail Trade Survey plays in the assessment
of the economic outlook provided to the President and the rest of the government.
Through research, he found that retail sales growth was correlated with other
outside sources of data that estimate consumer spending. He said that any change
that threatens to impair the quality of monthly retail data would be a serious blow
to economists’ ability to assess the economy.
Dr. Carroll also had suggestions on how to improve monthly retail data. He
expressed interest in making retail data available in monthly or quarterly form for
geographic detail such as state or regional levels. However, that is not possible
given the design of the Monthly Retail Trade Survey and budget constraints. We
have taken Dr. Carroll’s suggestions into advisement.
We also received a comment from John Bellows, Acting Assistant Secretary for
Economic Policy at the Department of the Treasury. Mr. Bellows expressed
strong support for the Monthly Retail Trade Survey. He described the survey as
playing a “key role in informing [the Treasury Department’s] views on the current
economic situation.” Mr. Bellows described the administration of the survey as
“imperative” and said that “discontinuing the Monthly Retail Trade Survey would
[thus] eliminate a crucial, timely piece of economic data and seriously hamper our
ability to assess the health of the U.S. economy.”

9.

Paying Respondents
The Census Bureau does not provide any payment or gifts to respondents for
participating in the MRTS.

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10.

Assurance of Confidentiality
Data collected in this survey are confidential under Title 13, Section 9 of the
United States Code. Only persons sworn to uphold the confidentiality of Census
Bureau information may see the questionnaires and may use them only for
statistical purposes. Additionally, all reports are immune from legal process.
Respondents are advised of this and are told that the survey is voluntary in a letter
that accompanies the initial report form. In addition, the survey forms indicate
that the survey is voluntary. Copies of the survey forms and the letters are
attached.

11.

Justification for Sensitive Questions
The Monthly Retail Trade Survey requests only routine business information that
is generally available from existing company records and is not of a sensitive
nature.

12.

Estimate of Hour Burden
Approximately 8,700 retail businesses are requested to report in the Monthly
Retail Trade Survey each month.
According to responses given by a sample of respondents, we computed an
average of 7 minutes per response. This results in an annual burden of 12,200
hours (see chart).

Firm
Size

Total Number
of Respondents

Responses per
Respondent

Annual
Responses

Annual Hours
per Response

Burden
Hours

EIN’s

6,510

12

78,120

.1166/7min.

9,114

Large Co’s

2,204

12

26,448

.1166/7min.

3,086

Total

8,714

12

104,568

.1166/7min.

12,200

The cost to respondents for fiscal year 2011 is estimated to be $353,922 based on
the median hourly salary of $29.01 for accountants and auditors. (Occupational
Employment Statistics- Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2009 National
Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates, $29.01 represents the median
hourly wage of the full-time wage and salary earnings of accountants and auditors
SOC code 13-2011) http://stats.bls.gov/oes/current/oes132011.htm

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13.

Estimate of Cost Burden
We do not expect respondents to incur any costs other than that of their time to
respond. The information requested is of the type and scope normally maintained
in company records and no special hardware or accounting software or system is
necessary to provide answers to this information collection. Therefore,
respondents are not expected to incur any capital and start-up costs or system
maintenance costs in responding. Further, purchasing of outside accounting or
information collection services, if performed by the respondent, is part of usual
business practices and not specifically required for this information collection.

14.

Cost to Federal Government
The cost to the Federal Government for the Monthly Retail Trade Survey in Fiscal
Year 2011 is $3,325,000, all borne by the Census Bureau. We expect the FY
2012 budget to be at a similar level.

15.

Reason for Change in Burden
The annual reporting burden for the Monthly Retail Trade Survey is expected to
be similar to the burden estimate in the last OMB submission. However, in this
submission we rounded our burden estimates, resulting in a 4 hour adjustment.

16.

Project Schedule
The Census Bureau mails forms to the respondents on the last workday of the
reference month. The return date requested is 8 business days after receipt. An
automated system screens the questionnaires for completeness and consistency
when the data are keyed beginning with the tenth workday of the month. Data are
tabulated and edited, summary estimates are analyzed, and data tables are
prepared.
Sales data for select industries are released in the press release “Advance Monthly
Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services” and inventories data are released in the
press release “Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales” approximately 40
days after the reference month. Sales and inventories data are released
electronically on the same day. E-commerce sales estimates are released
quarterly as part of the “Quarterly Retail E-commerce Sales” report,
approximately 45 days following the reference period.

17.

Request to Not Display Expiration Date
We wish to continue to display the expiration date.

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18.

Exceptions to the Certification
There are no exceptions to the certification statement.

19.

NAICS Codes Affected
The following are the 3-digit NAICS codes for the retailers affected by the
information collection:
NAICS
Code

Description

441

Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

442

Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores

443

Electronics and Appliances Stores

444

Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers

445

Food and Beverage Stores

446

Health and Personal Care Stores

447

Gasoline Stations

448

Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores

451

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores

452

General Merchandise Stores

453

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

454

Nonstore Retailers

722

Food Services and Drinking Places