Supporting Statement 2528 Part B

SUPPORTING STATEMENT 2528-0142 Part B

1. Target Population

The target population for each FMR survey is all telephone households in the area with the following household/unit characteristics:

• The respondent must be a renter of the dwelling unit;

• The respondent must reside in a single family residence (i.e., not group quarters such as dormitory or military barracks);

• The respondent must be reached on a non-business phone;

• The respondent must be reached in the unit that is used as the usual residence (i.e., not a seasonal or vacation residence);

• The unit must have two bedrooms. Metropolitan area surveys may collect data for one- and two-bedrooms, nonmetropolitan area surveys may collect data for one-, two-, and three-bedrooms;

• The unit must have been built at least two years ago;

• The unit must not be owned by a Public Housing Authority (PHA);

• The unit must not be owned by a relative;

• The respondent must not perform work for the landlord in exchange for rent.

Eligible respondents are divided into two groups, defined by the length of residence in their current units: “recent-movers” or “stayers.” “Recent-movers” are renters who have been in their current units for 24 months or less at the time of the interview; “stayers” are renters who have been in their current units more than 24 months at the time of the interview. Data were collected for both recent-movers and stayers.

2. Sample Selection

M. Davis and Company, Inc utilizes the services of the GENESYS System (Marketing Systems Group, Inc.) to generate sample. The GENESYS System employs list-assisted random digit dialing methodology. List-assisted refers to the use of commercial lists of directory-listed telephone numbers to increase the likelihood of dialing household residences. This method gives unlisted telephone numbers the same chance to be selected as directory-listed numbers.

The system utilizes a database consisting of all residential telephone exchanges, working bank information, and various geographic service parameters such as state, county, Primary ZIP code, etc. In addition, the database provides working bank information at the two-digit level – each of the 100 banks (i.e., first two digits of the four-digit suffix) in each exchange is defined as "working" if it contains one or more listed telephone households. On a National basis, this definition covers an estimated 96.4% of all residential telephone numbers and 99.96% of listed residential numbers. This database is updated on a quarterly basis. The sample frame consists of the set of all telephone exchanges that meet the geographic criteria. This geographic definition is made using one or more of the geographic codes included in the database. Following specification of the geographic area, the system selects all exchanges and associated working banks that meet those criteria. Based on the sample frame defined above, the system computes an interval such that the number of intervals is equivalent to the desired number of sample pieces. The interval is computed by dividing the total possible telephone numbers in the sample frame (i.e., # of working banks x 100) by the number of RDD sample pieces required. Within each interval a single random number is generated between 1 and the interval size; the corresponding phone number within the interval is identified and written to an output file. The result is that every potential telephone number within the defined sample frame has a known and equal probability of selection.

Below is Genesys' Random Digit Dialing sampling methodology:

1. Epsem (Equal Probability Selection Method) sample is generated in the

following way:

a) The sample frame is first specified, which is defined as a group of exchanges serving some geographic area - this could be a city, county, state, National, etc., or even just a set of exchanges.

b) The sampling interval is then calculated by summing all of the exchanges and working blocks in the frame, times 100.

c) This sum is then divided by the number of RDD records desired, thus specifying the size of the frame subdivisions.

d) At this point, the frame size has been fixed and divided into equal-sized subsets of ten-digit numbers.

e) Within each of the subsets, one number is selected at random from each of the equal-sized intervals.

f) All possible ten-digit numbers are given an equal probability of selection, regardless of the density of listed households within them. Hence, an extremely representative sample is produced.

g) There are a few advantages to an epsem sample:

1) Generates a statistically valid random sample also allows for unbiased estimates.

2) Project to all households with a phone number.

3) Is no potential bias toward households with listed phone numbers.

This process is designed to purge about 75% of the non-productive numbers (non-working, businesses and fax/modems). Since this process is completed after the sample is generated, the statistical integrity of the sample is maintained. GENESYS employs the ID-PLUS process for the HUD RDD Fair Market Rent surveys.

The Pre-Dialer Phase – The file of generated numbers is passed against the ID database, comprised of the GENESYS-Plus business database and the listed household database. Business numbers are eliminated while listed household numbers are set aside, to be recombined after the active Dialer Phase.

The Dialer Phase – The remaining numbers are then processed using automated dialing equipment – actually a specially configured PROYTYS Telephony system. In this phase, the dialing is 100% attended and the phone is allowed to ring up to two times. Specially trained agents are available to speak to anyone who might answer the phone and the number is dispositioned accordingly. Given this human intervention in evaluating all call results, virtually all remaining businesses, non-working and non-tritone intercepts, compensate for differences in non-working intercept behavior. The testing takes place during the restricted hours of 9 a.m. – 5 p.m. local time, to further minimize intrusion since fewer people are home during these hours.

The Post-Dialer Phase – The sample is then reconstructed, excluding the non-productive numbers identified in the previous two phases.

While data were collected for both recent-movers and stayers, calling protocols for FMR areas required that interviews be completed with at least 200 recent-movers in each FMR metropolitan area, and at least 100 recent-movers in each FMR nonmetropolitan area. Calling protocols also required that additional recent-mover interviews be completed in areas where the half-width of a 95 percent confidence interval centered at the 40th or 50th percentile recent mover rent estimate was greater than 5 percent of the estimate. Once the sampling frames for each FMR area was created, a preliminary estimate of the incidence of eligible rental units was obtained using Census information.

3. Response Rates

FY2009 FMR Area Surveys

Overall AAPOR Response Rate 3 Results

Market	AAPOR Response Rate3	AAPOR Cooperation Rate3	AAPOR Refusal Rate3	AAPOR Contact Rate3
Gulfport-Biloxi, MS	54.6%	85.3%	9.9%	90.1%
New Orleans, LA	50.9%	86.8%	10.5%	96.9%
Ward County, ND	55.4%	90.4%	6.0%	98.3%
Reno-Sparks, NV	42.9%	89.4%	5.0%	94.2%

These response rates are about the same as shown by M. Davis in the 2007 request, but there is a significant increase in the Refusal Rate. We believe this will continue to increase and is why we are evaluating survey methods that do not use telephones.

The following measures, were used in the M. Davis and Company surveys and improved response rates:

• Adopting the "new" longer introduction as the standard for all of the FMR surveys.

• Changing the maximum number of attempts to 15.

• Improving communication with local housing authorities and HUD Regional Offices to make sure they are aware of all area and regional surveys that are being conducted. Providing a means of verifying the legitimacy of the survey effort by placing a note on the HUD website.

• Change protocol so that a telephone line that is connected to a fax/modem is not considered terminal at the first encounter and will instead be tried again at a different times of day, days of week in order to better ascertain if the number rings into an eligible household.

• Consider investigating more thoroughly how many of the telephone numbers at the end of the study are not households, and then proposing an alternative method for handling these records for a more accurate response rate calculation.

4. Statistical Consultants; Data Collection Contractor

During the development of the area-specific and HUD Regional surveys conducted by the Research Triangle Institute (RTI, located in Research Triangle Park, NC), discussions were held with the following RTI staff:

Charles L. Usher, Director, Center for Policy Studies, Francis J. Potter, Senior Research Statistician, and Jutta P. Sebestik, Senior Research Survey Specialist.

The surveys were continued under a contract with ORC-Macro, through 2006, although the regional surveys were stopped in 2005. Improvements were made to the survey methodology in consultation with the following ORC-Macro staff:

Dr. Gregory Mahnke, Vice President and Managing Officer; Randal S. ZuWallack, Senior Statistical Analyst, and Leslyn Hall, Project Manager.

Under the new contract with M. Davis and Company, Inc., the following staff of M. Davis, as well subcontractor Abt Associates have been involved in the planning of the surveys and include:

Morris R. Davis, President and Managing Officer of the contract; Michael G. Campbell,

Esq., Project Manager; Dr. Meryl Finkel Statistical Consultant (Abt).