2007 CFS OMB Support Statement Part B.wpd

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Supporting Statement

Commodity Flow Survey Component of the 2007 Economic Census

B. Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods

1. Target Universe and Sampling

The sample of approximately 100,000 employer establishments will be taken from the Business Register. The Business Register is a comprehensive centralized listing of business establishments throughout the United States. It is based upon information from the Economic Census and is updated using Company Organization Survey results and administrative data from other government agencies, such as the Internal Revenue Service. The estimated universe of employer establishments is 750,000. For sampling purposes the universe will be stratified by geography and by industry. Geographic stratification will primarily be by State and major metropolitan areas. Establishments that exceed designated shipment value or weight thresholds will be selected with certainty. The remaining establishments will be selected using simple random sampling within substrata based on the establishments’ estimated value of shipments. Studies were conducted to determine optimal sample sizes for desired levels of reliability. The expected response rate for the 2007 Commodity Flow Survey is 80 percent, based on the results of previous Commodity Flow Surveys.

2. Procedures for Collecting Data

Beginning in late 2006, all establishments will be advised of their selection in the survey and the specific 1-week reporting period for each quarter of 2007. For each reporting period, the appropriate establishments will receive their questionnaires in advance of the reporting dates, so they can make preparations for sampling their shipments. Each establishment will be asked to select and report for a sample of their shipments for the 1-week period, based on the total number of shipments made by the establishment during that period. On average, respondents will report on approximately 25 shipments per questionnaire. This will result in four weeks of sampled shipments for each establishment during 2007. Responses are mailed back to Census.

3. Methods for Maximizing Response Rates

This information collection will maximize response through the following actions:

• A Precanvass that obtained updated establishment contact information (i.e., appropriate contact person, address, telephone number) and pre-screens specific establishments for eligibility prior to sample selection. This collected was separately approved by OMB under Approval Number 0607-0921.

• Survey materials that emphasize the mandatory and confidential nature of census reports, as provided by Title 13, U.S.C.

• Improved questionnaires and instructions that incorporate clear reporting directions.

• Toll-free telephone assistance for any business that has questions about completing its Commodity Flow Survey report.

• An Internet site to provide respondents with additional information about the survey, including answers to frequently asked questions and additional assistance with survey reporting.

• Systematic mail follow-up for non-response, supplemented by telephone follow-up for selected firms.

• Working with respondents to establish special reporting arrangements, including electronic reporting options and centralized reporting.

4. Testing of Procedures

The Census Bureau will use procedures based on the results and experiences gained in the conduct and review of the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey, as well as the considerable body of experience with related economic censuses and surveys. In addition, approximately 70 shipping establishments are included in a cognitive testing project to assist with improving survey materials and procedures.

5. Contacts for Statistical Aspects and Data Collection

Statistical methodology is developed under the direction of:

Ruth E. Detlefsen

Assistant Division Chief

for Research and Methodology

Services Sector Statistics Division

Bureau of the Census

Washington, D.C. 20233

Telephone: (301) 763-5171

The 2007 Commodity Flow Survey is conducted under the direction of:

Donna L. Hambric

Assistant Division Chief for

Current Service and Transportation Programs

Services Sector Statistics Division

Bureau of the Census

Washington, D.C. 20233

Telephone: (301) 763-2639

Attachments

1. Proposed Survey Materials

1. Summary of Changes to 2007 Commodity Flow Survey Questionnaire

2. Questionnaires (CFS-1000, CFS-2000)

3. Instruction Guide (CFS-1100)

4. Commodity Coding Manual (CFS-1200)

5. Cover Letter (CFS-1000-L1)

Note: The 2002 versions of the Instruction Guide, Commodity Coding Manual, and Cover Letter are provided for reference. These materials are in the process of being updated for the 2007 survey, but will be similar in content and style to the 2002 materials shown.

2. Support Letters (2)